Prime Minister Johnson’s mandate for government has been always about Brexit. Johnson achieved this, taking the country out of the EU at the end of 2019. Currently, the United Kingdom maintains the same relationship with the bloc for a one-year transition period that expires in December.

Negotiations for a trade deal to govern a new economic relationship have been ongoing through the year – according to a timeline that the UK determined – but the clock is ticking and BoJo’s announcement is the most serious signal yet that the government is braced for a shock exit.

In truth, Johnson’s Brexit agenda has been knocked off course by three very separate events.

First, both he and the nation he leads succumbed to COVID-19. His hospitalization at the very beginning of the pandemic appeared to sap the government of leadership at a crucial point in time. His government appeared to struggle with a coherent response to the pandemic. Britain has been hit harder than any other European country by coronavirus and after a brief respite over the summer, its recurrence as the winter season arrives presents a serious challenge for both the health – and wealth – of the nation. 

Second, Johnson – who was born in New York – had pinned hopes on the UK finalizing a trade deal with the US.  President Trump, who had backed Johnson during the Brexit campaign, fueled the optimism by committing to a “massive” trade deal by the end of 2020. But the energy and momentum for such a deal quickly disappeared. 

UK trade negotiators were tasked with prioritizing an EU trade deal, recognizing that political campaigning would take valuable attention away from serious trade talks.  Wait until after Nov. 3, goes the refrain.

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