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Pollsters in election: Views from behind the screen
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Night reader: A local poll administrator (KPPS) uses a smartphone to check ballots during the vote count at Lolu Utara, Palu, Central Sulawesi. (Antara/Basri Marzuki)
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few hours after polling stations closed at 1 p.m. on April 17, Indonesia’s electoral democracy went through a difficult phase of no-return, just like in 2014, namely, disputes over quick count results produced by pollsters and published on television and online media.
Again as in 2014, the losing camp of presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto claimed victory, prostrating in gratitude as in Islamic prayer. One of the most tangible differences from the 2014 election is that all pollsters’ quick counts displayed similar findings — that the incumbent Joko “Jokowi” Widodo-Mar’uf Amin had won with 54-55 percent and Prabowo-Sandiaga Uno had lost at around 45-46 percent.
However unlike the 2014 presidential election where three pollsters’ quick counts showed Prabowo beating Jokowi, Prabowo in 2019 declared victory in the election by referring to his “internal count”, insisting that all pollsters had manipulated data and thus public opinion.
So how were the quick counts actually conducted? And what really happens with the pollsters afterward? Here I will share insights based on my experience in the 2014 and 2019 elections with one of the independent registered pollsters, Poltracking Indonesia.
On the one hand, the quick count this year was the biggest project for any pollster during an electoral cycle.
The proliferation of pollsters in Indonesia’s democracy has been starkly evident, with dozens of Jakarta-based pollsters and hundreds of pollsters operating at national and local levels, including some undetected by mass media. Among pollsters, there are three layers regarding their capacity to conduct various kinds of political poll. All of them may be able to conduct public opinion surveys at least at the regency or municipality level.
Medium-level pollsters can hold national-level surveys. The pollsters at the highest level are the ones that hold quick counts for national elections.
