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Jakarta Post

Strategic stakes running high in ASEAN summit on Myanmar

Strategic stakes running high in ASEAN summit on Myanmar This handout photo taken and released by Dawei Watch on Tuesday shows a protester holding a sign during a rally against the military coup in Launglone township in Myanmar's Dawei district. (Dawei Watch via AFP/Handout)
Lina Alexandra and Evan A. Laksmana
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Jakarta   ●   Wed, April 7, 2021

Myanmar’s post-coup humanitarian crisis continues to unfold with at least 550 casualties, including children, and almost 3,000 detainees by now. There appears to be no end in sight to the violence, despite pleas and condemnations from all around the world.

Some have called for the United Nations to act based on the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) principle. But R2P tools short of military intervention, such as embargoes, sanctions or International Criminal Court prosecution, may not move the needle. Indeed, it is unclear whether the targeted sanctions preferred by the likes of the United States and United Kingdom would change the Tatmadaw generals’ calculus.

We also cannot easily rule out a “Libyan quagmire” scenario if there is a full-blown military intervention or a Chapter VII peacekeeping mission in Myanmar. In any case, UN Security Coun...

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