The war has been a very costly undertaking both in financial and human terms. On the human side, there has been a large number of civilian casualties and a flow of both internal refugees and those that have fled to neighboring countries, Iran, and Pakistan in particular.

On the financial side, the income of the government of Afghanistan is too meagre to finance the rebuilding of the country. Will the US and other major donors such as the World Bank contribute in a significant way to assist in this momentous effort?

In order to be able to bring political stability to Afghanistan, it is essential and indispensable that the Afghan leaders come to an understanding among themselves in order to have internal stability. As soon as they manage to put this in place, they will have moral authority over powerful countries with a specific, clear, and lasting purpose for Afghanistan. Presently its political leaders are ready to negotiate in an aggressive, competitive, egocentric, and defensive manner to have the power in order to remain in their current positions without worrying about the interests of the country or the people.

Of course, Afghanistan is well placed, but our analysis is different: we believe that something else is more important than that situation. Afghanistan is a weaker country in the region with leaders who are only interested in political power, with a lack of global vision for the development of the nation. This is the reason why every powerful country achieves its goals very easily across Afghanistan, according to its wishes. At any time, they may abandon Afghanistan.

At the same time, Afghanistan faces major economic and development challenges. Although the country is rich in natural resources, gas, minerals, and oil (estimated at over US$1 trillion), insecurity, war, lack of infrastructure, weak leaders, have limited the possibilities of finding and extracting these resources and Afghanistan is still among the poorest countries in the world.

Afghanistan has two major drawbacks that need to be addressed: first, very weak leaders or leaders by accident, who think only of their personal interests and who settle in power for life; and second, Afghanistan is the weakest country in the region.

Every leader, when he comes to power, forgets his real job, which is to create enduring systems and values ​​for today, tomorrow and the day after, and at least reduce existing problems and use their power to serve the people and the country, instead of monopolizing this power for personal interests.

On the contrary, when a leader comes to power, he increases the problem because he thinks traditionally, and above all he puts his relatives in the most important positions, without looking at their qualifications, because competence is less important than relational confidence.

There are many qualified people, but since they do not belong to the ethnicity of the political leaders, and share their point of view, thinking more for the country than their private interests, such kind of people have very little place in the mind of these leaders.

Today, politics in Afghanistan is becoming like a business, and everyone is doing politics. However, the real job is still abandoned, because the vast majority of the people no longer trust the politicians, and even the real ones, those politicians who want to change something for their country.

The war in Afghanistan has five dimensions: 1) A leadership crisis, meaning that the Afghan leaders do not agree with each other and look at power sharing; 2) Certain countries in the region, particularly Pakistan, are very involved in Afghanistan, which they destabilize; 3) Major powers, too, have their own agendas on the region; 4) Certain countries support terrorism and extremist groups; 5) The negotiation process must be led not by politicians, but by neutral Afghan experts.

Therefore, we make the following recommendations:

First, encourage the leaders to have a government in which no single ethnic group monopolizes power. There should be one president and four vice-presidents. Each two years a rotation of the president would be put in place. The entire mandate would be limited to ten years. This would allow power sharing that would prevent having one ethnic group monopolizing power through a rotation system of two years as President.     

Second, the US should intervene in Pakistan to force a peace process between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Pakistan has been a major destabilizer in the region by harboring terrorists and using them as their second army as indicated by several international sources. Should this problem remain unsolved, it would become, sooner or later, a global threat for democracy and humanity. It would not be a good inheritance for the future world leaders.

President Joe Biden mentioned that the US would again lead the world. We strongly believe the above issue should be a priority, or else it may be too late to bring peace to the region and worldwide. The US should avoid countries that back terrorism and, particularly, those actions that kill children and humanitarian workers.

As a major power, the US presence in Afghanistan could develop a strong relationship, instead of a partnership, just as the US has done in other countries, providing its presence in the area is of interest. This would be a break from the present situation in which the Afghan population lacks a clear understanding of its position. Should the US develop a mutually beneficial relationship, the Afghan population would strongly support it. A complete departure before peace puts in danger democracy, women, and children not only in Afghanistan but also worldwide.

The US should sanction all countries or groups and persons that support terrorism. As an example, economic sanctions banning the purchase of military material should be implemented. Doing so in Pakistan would be a good starting point.

Third, the negotiation process cannot be done by people that are thirsty for power and have no vested interest in peace as they hold power. We would suggest that the peace talks be led by neutral experts with politicians and the civil society backing-up them.

If there is no peace in Afghanistan, there will be a major threat in the region and in the world. Afghanistan is the first line of defense against terrorism not only for themselves, but also for the entire world.

 ***

The writer is a professor of leadership and entrepreneurship, and president of Swiss UMEF University