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Jokowi’s overweight coalition
The majoritarian characteristics of Indonesian politics can tempt Jokowi to hijack democratic procedures to do anything he wants, including to extend his term through constitutional amendments.
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President Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo (Presidential Secretariat Press Bureau/Muchlis Jr. )
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resident Joko “Jokowi” Widodo may weigh no more than 60 kilograms, but one should forget about his physical appearance as he has built a large coalition to support his government. With last week’s entry of the National Mandate Party (PAN) (for the second time after quitting in 2019) into the alliance, Jokowi now enjoys the backing of seven political parties that control 81 percent of the House of Representatives, a feat that eluded other post-Reform Era presidents.
But here lies the danger. The majoritarian characteristics of Indonesian politics can tempt Jokowi to hijack the procedural democracy to do anything he wants, including to extend his term through a constitutional amendment by the People’s Consultative Assembly (MPR), which combines the 575-member House and 136-member Regional Representatives Council (DPD). Jokowi has frequently denied such plans.
In terms of legal technicality, the coalition now only needs support from three DPD members to fulfill the requirement to revise the Constitution. An MPR session to amend the Constitution requires the presence of two thirds or 474 Assembly members and the amendment needs approval of a simple majority of those in attendance.
During Soeharto’s New Order era, a national referendum was required to amend the Constitution as mandated in MPR Decree No. 4/1983.
The Jokowi coalition can change the Constitution at any time and for any reason, although in public it has promised to focus on the issue of state policy outlines (PKHN), which are similar to the state policy guidelines of the MPR during Soeharto’s era.
Indonesian democracy, which flourished after the fall of Soeharto in 1998, now is facing a clear and present danger. Sadly, the people look powerless to stop the ruining of democracy. It is unlikely that another people’s power movement like that which forced Soeharto to step down will emerge.
PAN officially joined the ruling coalition after party chairman Zulkifli Hassan attended last week a meeting between Jokowi and leaders of the political parties that form his government. The grand coalition leaves the Democratic Party and the Prosperous Justice Party behind – allowing the tiny opposition to speak as loudly as it can if only to show that democracy remains intact.
The way Jokowi is expanding his coalition indicates he is consolidating his power amid declining popularity and a potential fracturing of his ruling coalition. From this perspective, what Jokowi is doing is not unusual in politics. But there are indeed concerns that an overweight coalition would subvert the checks and balances mechanism, which has been ineffective practically since even before Jokowi began his second term in October 2019.
Jokowi had enough support in the House, so his recent maneuver begs many questions. What else can we expect from an obese coalition than a legislative power that merely serves as a rubber stamp of government policies as typified by the New Order? Soeharto used the military and bureaucracy to ensure his absolute control of the country. Now Jokowi and the political and economic oligarchs need each other to survive and thrive.
The nation is still struggling to contain the spread of COVID-19 and the damage it has done to the economy and the well-being of many. No one knows when this global health disaster will end, but tragically the powers that be can gain from this horrifying event to change the direction of the country’s democracy for their own ends.
