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China's Q4 GDP growth beats forecasts but momentum cooling
The GDP grew at its weakest pace in one-and-half years, despite beating forecasts.
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Workers sort packages at a logistics company in Hengyang, Hunan, China, on Nov. 12, 2021, a day after Singles’ Day, the biggest shopping day of the year. (AFP/STR)
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hina's economic growth was faster than expected in the final quarter of 2021 but still its weakest pace in one-and-half years, with the central bank cutting loan rates to cushion slowing momentum in the world's second-largest economy.
The country faces headwinds from regulatory curbs, property sector woes and sporadic COVID-19 outbreaks.
Gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 4.0 percent in the October-December period from a year earlier, against 4.9 percent growth in the third quarter, National Bureau of Statistics data showed on Monday. Analysts had forecast a rise of 3.6 percent in a Reuters poll.
The economy grew 8.1 percent in 2021, faster than a forecast 8.0 percent and well above a government target of "above 6 percent" and 2020's revised growth of 2.2 percent.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP rose 1.6 percent in October-December, compared with expectations for a 1.1 percent rise and a revised 0.7 percent gain in the previous quarter.
China's economy got off to a strong start in 2021 as activity rebounded from a pandemic-induced slump the previous year, but it has lost steam due to a property downturn, debt curbs and strict COVID-19 curbs that have hit consumption.
Chinese leaders have pledged more support for the economy, which is facing multiple headwinds into 2022.
China's central bank on Monday unexpectedly cut the borrowing costs of its medium-term loans for the first time since April 2020, leading some analysts to expect more policy easing this year to cushion an economic slowdown.
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) said it was lowering the interest rate on 700 billion yuan (US$110.2 billion) worth of one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans to some financial institutions by 10 basis points to 2.85 percent from 2.95 percent in previous operations.
"Economic momentum remains weak amid repeated virus outbreaks and a struggling property sector. As such, we anticipate another 20 bps of cuts to PBOC policy rates during the first half of this year," said analysts at Capital Economics, in a note.
Weak consumption data also clouded the outlook, with retail sales in December missing expectations with only a 1.7 percent increase from a year earlier, the slowest pace since August 2020. Analysts in the poll had expected them to grow 3.7 percent after rising 3.9 percent in November.
Several Chinese cities went on high COVID-19 alert ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday travel season, as the Omicron variant reached more areas including Beijing.
A bright spot was industrial output, up an annual 4.3 percent in December, picking up from a 3.8 percent increase in November, and better than a 3.6 percent increase in a Reuters poll.
Fixed asset investment rose 4.9 percent in 2021, compared with the 4.8 percent increase tipped by analysts and 5.2 percent in the first 11 months of the year.
