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Indonesian coal to see export slump, possible output cuts: Experts
Many analysts expect Indonesia's coal exports to experience a slump and miners to slash production to adjust costs amid low global prices due to market oversupply.
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Two workers walk on Jan. 4, 2022 past a coal barge at a coal terminal in Palembang, South Sumatra. (Reuters)
Indonesia’s thermal coal export is expected to dip in 2024 amid moderate global demand and a supply glut.
The country’s coal exports declined in value more than 15 percent from 2022 to US$59 billion last year, a but it still shipped 550 million tonnes of coal, an increase in volume of 12 percent over the same period, according to data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS).
Hendra Sinadia, executive director of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI), said he also expected total coal exports to decline this year.
The government has set the 2024 production target at 710 million tonnes, 8 percent lower compared to last year when production hit a record high of 775 million tonnes in 2023, according to Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry.
“Coal prices are under pressure because the global thermal coal market is in oversupply. The estimates indicate that this condition will continue in 2024,” he told The Jakarta Post on Thursday.
Global demand for thermal coal increased 1 to 2 percent last year, Hendra explained, but this was surpassed by significantly higher supply to result in an oversupply of coal.
Aside from Indonesia, China also reached a record high coal output in 2023 amid its ongoing focus on energy security and a rise in demand after fully lifting COVID-19 restrictions, Reuters reported, citing official data released on Jan. 17.
