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Angka inflasi aman, namun BI mungkin tak akan longgarkan kendali

Inflasi umum, yang mengukur kenaikan harga konsumen tiap tahun, sedikit menurun menjadi 3 persen di bulan April, dari 3,05 persen di bulan sebelumnya.

Deni Ghifari (The Jakarta Post)
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Thu, May 2, 2024 Published on May. 2, 2024 Published on 2024-05-02T16:05:57+07:00

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People queue to buy daily necessities at fixed prices at a market in Surabaya on March 12, 2024, as the government intervened to keep food supplies and prices stable. People queue to buy daily necessities at fixed prices at a market in Surabaya on March 12, 2024, as the government intervened to keep food supplies and prices stable. (AFP/Juni Kriswanto)
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ertumbuhan indeks harga konsumen (IHK) Indonesia terus berada dalam batas yang dapat diterima selama hampir satu tahun. Namun, Bank Indonesia (BI) menaikkan suku bunga utamanya sebanyak dua kali selama periode tersebut, dan para analis yakin bank sentral akan tetap berhati-hati meskipun angka inflasi aman.

Kamis kemarin, pejabat sementara Kepala Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) Amalia Adininggar Widyasanti mengumumkan dalam konferensi pers bahwa inflasi umum, yang mengukur kenaikan harga konsumen tahun-ke-tahun (year on year atau yoy), sedikit menurun menjadi 3 persen di April. Angka inflasi Maret adalah 3,05 persen.

Secara bulanan, pertumbuhan IHK menurun signifikan. Harga konsumen di bulan April hanya 0,25 persen lebih tinggi jika dibandingkan bulan Maret. Hal itu menandai perlambatan dari kenaikan bulanan sebesar 0,52 persen di bulan Maret.

Amalia mengaitkan perlambatan tersebut dengan berkurangnya tekanan harga pada produk makanan pokok, yang ia sebut contohnya adalah “cabai merah, beras, dan telur”.

Selama hampir satu tahun, inflasi terjaga baik dalam kisaran target BI. Namun suku bunga acuan tetap naik dau kali. Terakhir, pada 24 April, terjadi kenaikan sebesar 25 basis poin (bps), hingga suku bunga BI menjadi 6,25 persen.

Kisaran target inflasi BI pada 2023 adalah 2 hingga 4 persen, yang akhirnya tercapai pada akhir tahun sebesar 2,61 persen. Bank sentral kemudian menetapkan target yang lebih ambisius sebesar 2,5 plus/minus 1 persen untuk tahun ini. Sejauh ini, pertumbuhan IHK masih jauh dari batas atas.

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Setelah periode inflasi tinggi yang berkepanjangan di Indonesia dan sebagian besar negara di dunia, inflasi domestik akhirnya kembali turun ke kisaran target BI pada Mei 2023. Saat itu, pertumbuhan IHK menyentuh 4 persen yoy.

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