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Experts warns of upcoming third wave as Omicron spreads
Experts said the Omicron variant, which was first detected in Indonesia around three weeks ago, was far more widespread among the population than the official data showed, adding that a third wave of infections could be coming in the near term.
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One shot counts: A little girl receives a Sinovac vaccine jab at Sumatera Utara University Hospital in Medan on Dec. 30, 2021. The government is intensifying its vaccination drive for children aged 6-11 years old against COVID-19. (Antara/Fransisco Carolio)
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ases of the highly transmissible Omicron variant continue to grow in Indonesia, three weeks after the country reported its first confirmed case, but the new variant has not so far brought the type of surge recorded in many countries.
Experts have said, however, that the Omicron variant is far more widespread among the population than the official data showed, adding that a third wave of infections could be coming in the near term.
Clinical pathologist from Sebelas Maret University (UNS) Tonang Dwi Ardyanto said the true scale of the spread of the Omicron variant in the country had been obscured by a lack of COVID-19 testing, particularly using the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests considered to be the gold standard in detecting the coronavirus disease.
“Indonesia currently manages to test around 200,000 people a day, but around 85 percent of the tests use the less-sensitive antigen test,” said Tonang. “Most of the COVID-19 tests were also used for travel requirements instead of diagnostics, further fueling confusion over the extent of the spread of Omicron.”
Studies of antigen test kits from various brands cited by the World Health Organization have shown that their sensitivity ranges between 0 and 94 percent, meaning the chance of false negatives could be high. But their specificity is consistently above 97 percent, meaning the chance of false positives is low.
Virologist from Udayana University, I Gusti Ngurah Mahardika, said poor contact tracing capacity was also a contributing factor obscuring the true scale of Omicron cases in the country.
He said health authorities could only trace 13 close contacts per case on average, slightly below the WHO’s recommendation of tracing and testing a minimum of 15 close contacts per case. Ideally, he said, the authorities should be able to trace and test 30 close contact per case.
