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El Niño returns, with moderate risk in Indonesia
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A resident stands near a burning land in forest fires raging in Simulop village, Panguruan district, Samosir regency, North Sumatra on Aug. 7, 2022. (Antara/Fransisco Carolio)
T
he hotter El Niño climate pattern is back after three years and while it threatens to bring with it extreme weather events, several meteorological agencies have suggested this week that Indonesia is likely to be at relatively moderate risk from such events, due to variables ranging from sunspots to sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Indian Ocean.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of the United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on Thursday issued an El Niño advisory on the weather phenomenon’s arrival.
El Niño is marked by above-average SST in the central and eastern tropical regions of the Pacific Ocean.
“Depending on its strength, El Niño can cause a range of impacts, such as increasing the risk of heavy rainfall and droughts in certain locations around the world,” Michelle L’Heureux, a CPC climate scientist, said in a statement on Thursday.
“Climate change can exacerbate or mitigate certain impacts related to El Niño. For example, El Niño could lead to new records for temperatures, particularly in areas that already experience above-average temperatures during El Niño,” L'Heureux added.
NOAA forecast that El Niño’s influence on US regions would be weak during the summer and more pronounced starting in the late fall through spring. By its peak in winter from November to January, there was “an 84 percent chance of exceeding moderate strength”, the advisory said, and a 56 percent chance of a strong El Niño.
Meanwhile, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology activated its El Niño Alert on Tuesday, forecasting a 70 percent chance of the weather phenomenon developing in 2023, which it said was “roughly three times the normal chance”.
