W

ith the 2018 regional elections and the 2019 legislative and presidential elections approaching, Indonesian Military (TNI) commander Air Chief Marshal Hadi Tjahjanto is racing against time to consolidate power within the armed forces to maintain national stability during the potentially turbulent political years.

The recent reassignments of 28 high-ranking officers, in which Hadi installed Air Vice Marshal Kisenda Wiranata Kusuma as the Strategic Intelligence Agency (BAIS) head, a position dominated by Army officers in the past, has been seen as part of Hadi’s attempt to consolidate his leadership over the armed forces.

“The head of BAIS is one among the positions strategic to the TNI commander and the latter surely tends to choose an officer whose chemistry and interaction have been long established with the commander himself,” military analyst Andi Widjajanto from the University of Indonesia said recently.

BAIS played a strategic role in conducting intelligence gathering, which is one of the TNI’s behind-the-scenes roles to ensure security during the elections. The military’s spy agency shared a similar role as that of the State Intelligence Agency (BIN) and the National Police’s Security Intelligence Agency (Baintelkam).

Andi went on to say that it was necessary to give Hadi, who previously was Air Force chief of staff, room for internal consolidation, given that Hadi’s personality and leadership style was different from Gatot, an Army general with experience in combat troops.

The next challenge for Hadi, Andi said, was to replace the three armed forces’ — Army, Navy and Air Force — chiefs of staff. While the commander would likely appoint his successor in the Air Force in the near future, the current Navy chief of staff Adm. Ade Supandi is set to retire in May next year and Army chief of staff Gen. Mulyono in April 2019.

“With regard to [TNI] needs, there is also a possibility that [Mulyono] could be replaced three or six months before his retirement to ensure security for the 2019 general and legislative elections,” Andi said.

The solidity and positioning of officers in the strategic positions are among the essential things that would determine TNI neutrality and professionalism during the 2018 and 2019 political years, Andi said.

“Other than this, the commander just needs to maintain TNI solidity with the National Police and BIN,” he added.

Hadi, who is set to lead the TNI until his retirement in 2020, appeared to have moved to strengthen military-police ties with National Police chief Gen. Tito Karnavian. Hadi took Tito, Mulyono and Ade to fly Sukhoi SU30 jet fighters on Wednesday.

While Tito would lead the police as the leading sector to ensure security during elections, Hadi would lead the military’s behind-the-scenes role to keep security intact through its “territorial function”, which also includes civilian deployment and social engineering.

In addition to reassigning the 28 officers, Hadi also canceled the rotations of 16 high-ranking officers ordered by Gatot, who has been accused of harboring political ambitions for the 2019 elections, during his final days before President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo inaugurated Hadi.

Speculation is rife that Hadi’s decision on the rotations was to weed out officers who were perceived to be loyal to Gatot, however, TNI spokesperson Maj. Gen. Sabrar Fadhilah rebuffed the claim, saying that it was based on professionalism and the merit system.

Fadhilah also played down speculation that said Hadi favored Air Force personnel to take over leadership of BAIS. “The Army, Navy and Air Force share similar chances […] as long as the positions have the possibility of being filled by all of TNI’s [three] armed forces,” he said.