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Java-Bali polls: Jokowi, Prabowo step up efforts to woo swing voters
Political analysts review the latest polls and surveys as the presidential candidates enter the final two weeks of the campaign period.
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A three-dimensional illustration by Khilmi Ardiansyah shows the profiles of presidential candidates Joko “Jokowi” Widodo (left) and Prabowo Subianto, created in miniature using matchsticks. (JP/Aman Rochman)
T
he two most densely populated islands of Java and Bali have always been in the crosshairs of a presidential campaign strategy. Yet, both islands are currently witnessing a political tug-of-war in voter preferences.
On Bali, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) is engraved in the people’s minds, having won the majority of local votes in the last two elections, including Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s victory in 2014 with at least 71 percent of all Balinese vote.
Recent polls by the Centre of Strategic International Studies (CSIS), Kompas and Charta Politika have also put Jokowi in the lead at 64 percent in Bali, East Nusa Tenggara, and West Nusa Tenggara.
Political expert I Nyoman Subanda of Bali Education University explained that Jokowi’s decision to disband the Hizbut Tahrir Indonesia (HTI) hardline group had greatly boosted his popularity among the island's predominantly Hindu population. This was because Balinese voters tended to seek figures that aimed to protect minority rights amid the emerging extremism, especially since the island is a Hindu enclave in the Muslim-majority nation.
Subanda said, however, that the Balinese people could relinquish their loyalty to the PDI-P if its local politicians became embroiled in corruption cases. He cited the 2013 graft case of former Buleleng regent Putu Bagiada, who was sentenced to two years for corruption.
With a population of nearly 4 million, Bali surprised the local election commission in the 2014 presidential election, when about 800,000 out of 3 million eligible voters abstained.
“It isn’t easy to shift the political stance of Balinese voters. But if they start feeling disappointed by corrupt PDI-P officials and seeing the potential in other national parties, they could change their minds," said Subanda. "Otherwise, they will [choose to] remain silent and not vote at all.”
