“What we did not predict was that his victory would be rather absolute,” the director of the Parameter Institute in Aceh, Iqbal Ahmady, said recently.

According to a quick count by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) – Cyrus Network, Prabowo and his running mate Sandiaga Uno might win 79.3 percent of the vote in Aceh, against Joko "Jokowi" Widodo-Ma’ruf Amin’s 20 percent. This margin is far greater than the results of the 2014 election, in which Prabowo won 54 percent of the vote in Aceh against Jokowi's 45 percent.

Quick count results suggest that Jokowi will secure a second term, winning around 55 to 56 percent of the vote against Prabowo’s 44 to 46 percent. The General Elections Commission (KPU) will announce the official results on May 22.

Iqbal highlighted religious issues and the strong political machine of the Aceh Party and Gerindra, especially at the grassroots level, as some of the defining factors in Prabowo’s victory in the country’s westernmost province.

On the contrary, Jokowi's campaign team did not perform its best in Aceh, home to over 5 million people, with observers saying that it mostly only touched on superficial matters without delving into the political issues that were relevant to locals. 

Jokowi’s campaign team failed to approach the local charismatic clerics, while the rival team did so, even signing an integrity pact with the religious figures.

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