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Trump, Biden's paths to victory in US presidential election

Six states remain to be called -- Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin -- with Biden needing to carry at least three to win, while Trump would need at least four.

Brad Heath (Reuters)
Washington, United States
Wed, November 4, 2020

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Trump, Biden's paths to victory in US presidential election This combination of file photos shows US President Donald Trump(L) speaking to the media prior to departing from the White House in Washington, DC, on March 3, 2020, and Democratic presidential hopeful and former Vice President Joe Biden at a Nevada Caucus watch party on February 22, 2020, in Las Vegas, Nevada, during the Nevada caucuses. - President Donald Trump assailed likely opponent Joe Biden as (AFP/Saul Loeb, Ronda Churchill)

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resident Donald Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden on Wednesday each faced narrow paths to potential victory in a close-fought US presidential election that will be determined by a razor-thin margin.

Six states remain to be called -- Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin -- with Biden needing to carry at least three to win, while Trump would need at least four.

The outcome is almost certain to come down to millions of absentee ballots that were the first cast in this election and often are the last to be counted.

At 6 a.m. ET (1100 GMT), Biden held narrow leads in Nevada and Wisconsin. Trump held slim leads in Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Michigan, though tens of thousands of ballots remain to be counted in those states, many of them votes cast by mail in the areas around major cities, which traditionally favor Democrats.

Here are Trump's and Biden's paths to victory:

TRUMP

Trump’s most likely road to victory goes through Pennsylvania, a state he carried in 2016. If he wins there, he will have to win three of the other battleground states to secure 270 electoral votes. If he doesn’t win Pennsylvania, he’ll have to sweep the remaining five.

Trump led the voting in Pennsylvania about 55 percent to 43 percent with about 75 percent of the votes likely counted.

The state’s biggest cities, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, have reported only a small share of their election results so far, and those results traditionally favor Democrats. Beyond that, many of the ballots that remain to be counted were filed by mail, and the state has said many more Democrats than Republicans cast mail-in ballots this year.

Pennsylvania offers one other wrinkle: Its state courts have ordered officials to count absentee ballots that were cast by Tuesday so long as they arrive in the mail by Friday. (Trump has criticized the U.S. Supreme Court for permitting the change and the case could return to the court after the election.)

BIDEN

Biden’s most likely road to victory goes through Nevada and Wisconsin, states where he held narrow leads early Wednesday morning as officials worked to tally the final votes. If Biden wins those states, victories in Georgia, Michigan or Pennsylvania would give him enough to win.

Trump held a lead of about 51 percent-47 percent in Michigan, but many of the votes remaining to be counted there were mail-in ballots from Detroit and its suburbs, where Democrats have historically enjoyed an electoral advantage.

Officials in Nevada, where Biden had a razor-thin 49.3 percent-48.7 percent lead with 86 percent of expected votes counted, said they would not resume counting ballots until Thursday morning

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