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Oil output could plummet 87% by 2040: National Energy Board
A drastic drop in production is expected over the coming decades unless decisive action is taken, while consumption is set to rise fast.
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Elnusa employees repair an offshore oil and gas rig in this undated photograph. (Pertamina/Pertamina)
T
he National Energy Board (DEN) predicts a drastic decline in domestic oil output over the coming two decades, with current production already far below the targeted 1 million barrels of oil per day (bopd).
DEN secretary-general Djoko Siswanto predicted that oil production would drop to only 300,000 bopd in 2030 and 119,000 bopd in 2040 without regulations and incentives to encourage more exploration, enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and the acquisition of oil fields abroad.
“Efforts to increase oil production need to be carried out quickly,” he said during an online webinar on Tuesday, adding that progress toward achieving the 1 million bopd target was hindered by conflicts of interests within organization units, slowing down the procurement of drilling rigs, the implementation of EOR and the acquisition of permits from regional administrations.
Upstream Oil and Gas Special Regulatory Task Force (SKK Migas) spokesman Rinto Pudyantoro declined to provide details on exploration and production in the third quarter but said the agency would arrange a press conference in the near future.
“We cannot comment yet,” he told The Jakarta Post on Wednesday.
Separately, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) energy economist Alloysius Joko Purwanto said the DEN’s estimation was based on the assumption that the downward trend in production from 2016 to 2020 would continue to 2030 and beyond.
“It is possible that the government will miss the target if there is no significant improvement compared to the 2016-2020 period,” he told the Post on Wednesday.
