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Let Prabowo handle Natuna waters conflict
Prabowo will have to focus on the Natuna issue because Indonesia is now dealing with the Chinese military in the waters.
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A member of the Navy fires a 12.7 mm machine gun onboard a warship during a fire support exercise in the South Natuna Sea on Nov. 25, 2020. (Courtesy of the Indonesian Navy/-)
P
resident Joko “Jokowi” Widodo needs to assign Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto to be in charge of resolving the problems in Natuna waters, amid escalating (albeit hidden) tension with China. The current situation there has gone beyond the realm of diplomacy, such that a new approach combining civil and military diplomacy is required.
Prabowo’s international standing and the possibility that he may be Indonesia’s next president will strengthen his bargaining power vis-à-vis China.
Perhaps there are fears Prabowo’s involvement may instead escalate the tension as China may perceive it as a direct military challenge from Indonesia. But as an intellectual military general with a global network especially with western countries, Prabowo’s role in the policy-making related to the Natuna issue will increase Indonesia’s political weight.
For Prabowo, this will be a good opportunity to boost his electability ahead of the 2024 presidential election. Conversely, failure would jeopardize his third attempt to win the presidency.
Foreign Minister Retno LP Marsudi remains in command when it comes to Indonesia’s foreign policy in general. Prabowo will have to focus on the Natuna issue because Indonesia is now dealing with the Chinese military in the waters. This does not mean Indonesia is ready for a confrontation with China, but is simply to make it clear the Natuna issue is sensitive for both the government and the nation and can reopen the “old wounds” of bilateral relations between Jakarta and Beijing.
As a retired Army general, Prabowo holds a more pragmatic and realistic view about the increasingly heavy presence of foreign military in the Indo-Pacific area than the Foreign Ministry, which tends to pursue traditional diplomacy.
When asked about the AUKUS agreement between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States, during an international forum in Manama on Nov. 22, for example, Prabowo bluntly said he could understand and respect the three countries’ move. Diplomatically, Indonesia has expressed concern over the strategic military alliance that clearly is targeting China.
