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Is progress on Myanmar possible in 2022?
Cambodia’s plan to approach the Myanmar problem through “quiet diplomacy” and its willingness to support the inclusion of the junta in ASEAN summits has caused concern in some ASEAN capitals.
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This handout photo taken and released on Dec. 16, 2021 by Metta Charity shows people from Myanmar who fled a surge in violence sitting in lines as they are processed in Mae Tao Phae in Thailand's Mae Sot district near the border, as Thai military personnel look on. (AFP/Metta Charity)
A
s other pressing issues have begun to dominate the agenda of many Southeast Asian countries, it is a bit concerning to note how there has been no noticeable progress regarding the resolution of the Myanmar crisis.
ASEAN has not been able to push the junta to move even an inch toward the implementation of the Five-Point Consensus (FPC) issued at the emergency ASEAN summit back in April. The junta continues to ruthlessly perpetrate brutal violence against its own people. Consequently, the relevance and utility of the FPC as the basis for ASEAN’s approach to solving the Myanmar problem are now at stake.
ASEAN needs to make some progress in 2022, a year after the coup. However, as Cambodia starts its chairmanship of ASEAN, it is not immediately clear how ASEAN’s efforts will lead to a different result. For sure, it is impossible to expect that the junta will suddenly have a change of heart, take concrete steps to implement the FPC and restore democracy in Myanmar.
So far, the junta has been stubbornly patient, playing a long game of holding on to power, hoping that it will eventually win gradual acceptance and recognition from ASEAN member states. However, if the junta and ASEAN are moving along this trajectory, a war of resistance in Myanmar could escalate and ASEAN’s own reputation will be severely damaged.
Recent developments do not inspire any confidence. Cambodia’s plan to approach the Myanmar problem through “quiet diplomacy” and its willingness to support the inclusion of the junta in ASEAN summits, for example, has caused concern in some ASEAN capitals. Allowing the junta to attend ASEAN meetings would mean abandoning ASEAN’s own consensus, create unnecessary divisions within ASEAN and undermine what is left of ASEAN’s credibility on this issue.
Prime Minister Hun Sen has also appointed Cambodia’s foreign minister as a new ASEAN envoy on Myanmar. While this appointment is well within Cambodia’s privilege as a chair, and does not violate any of ASEAN’s rules and consensus, it exposes a major flaw in ASEAN’s approach.
Indeed, ASEAN’s approach to the Myanmar crisis has been flawed from inception. ASEAN is never meant to resolve “internal” problems of its member states. It was formed to manage inter-state relations so that no member states would ever contemplate using force to resolve bilateral problems between them. That is why ASEAN jealously upholds the sanctity of sovereignty and non-interference.
