As a contributor to the birth of the Group of 20 Summit in 2008, Indonesia's main interest is in keeping the forum from collapsing.
There are questions and debates regarding Russia’s membership in the Group of 20 following its invasion of Ukraine. Will the G20 remain the G20? Or will it become G19, without Russia? Or become the G13, without the G7? Or will it disband and become the G0?
Regardless of what happens next, it is clear that the forum will not be the same. It is ill, divided and in danger of becoming dysfunctional.
Within the G20, the G7 countries are generally unified against Russia. They are the United States, Canada, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy and Japan.
G20 members Mexico, Indonesia, Korea, Turkey and Australia (MIKTA) are already split over the Australian prime minister’s decision to reject President Vladimir Putin's presence at the G20 summit in Bali.
The BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), all G20 members, are likely to oppose any efforts to remove Russia from the forum.
The positions of Latin American countries, such as Argentina and Mexico, as well as Saudi Arabia and South Korea, are still unknown, although, like Indonesia, they all supported the United Nations resolution condemning Russia.
Significantly, the political atmosphere within the G20 is not good at all. Geopolitical contentions between the West and Russia have hardened, and economic sanctions have intensified. Leaders of Western countries in the G20 refuse to sit at the same table as Putin. If Russia succeeds in conquering Ukraine in the next few weeks or months, the conflict between Russia and the West will certainly worsen. But even if there is peace in Ukraine, the contention between the West and Russia will continue, as it has become a strategic and systemic conflict.
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