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Analysis: Anies’ presidential hope hinges on NasDem. Will it deliver?
Opinion polls on the 2024 presidential election show that Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan is among the most popular public figures, but his nomination remains clouded by uncertainty.
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Jakarta gubernatorial candidate Anies Baswedan speaks during his media visit in Jakarta, on Monday, January 9, 2017. (JP/Wienda Parwitasari)
Overview
Opinion polls on the 2024 presidential election show that Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan is among the most popular public figures, but his nomination remains clouded by uncertainty. His chances will further narrow after October, when he steps down as governor, effectively losing the public stage for his presidential bid.
As the presidential hopefuls’ nomination remain in the hands of political parties, Anies’ best and likely only hope is the National Democrat (NasDem) party. But there are two obstacles to overcome first. One is that NasDem must form an alliance with other political parties to meet the presidential threshold, which is beyond his control. The other is that Anies has to convince NasDem and its alliance partners that he is their best bet for winning votes in the legislative elections.
The 53-year Jakarta governor is getting there, albeit slowly, and he still has some way to go. NasDem announced this month it had formed an alliance with the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and the Democratic Party (PD). Together they have the right to nominate their common presidential and vice-presidential candidates.
The Election Law stipulates that political parties must have won more than 25 percent of votes in the 2019 elections or more than 20 percent of the seats in the House of Representatives to be eligible to nominate a candidate. Parties may pool their 2019 votes or their House seats to meet the threshold to name a candidate.
NasDem has named Anies as one of the three figures it is considering. The other two are Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, who is also popular, and Indonesian Military chief Gen. Andika Perkasa. Ganjar has said he would only run as a candidate of his party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P). Andika may have presidential ambitions, but his low electability in most polls makes him an unlikely choice.
Barring any surprises, it is almost certain that NasDem will pick Anies. But it still has to convince the PKS and the Democrats to go along with its choice. This would be subject to negotiations between the three parties. The PKS may be easier to convince, as it supported Anies’ 2016 gubernatorial bid, but the Democrats are anxious to nominate their chairman, Agus Harimurti, a son of former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.
