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The pandemic is not over, but when is the next one?
The next global pandemic will most likely be caused by a zoonotic virus, referring to an infectious disease that is transmitted between species from animals to humans.
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Extra care: A nurse assists a patient suffering from COVID-19 at the Intensive Care Unit at a hospital in Bogor, West Java, on Jan. 26, 2021. (Reuters/Willy Kurniawan)
In a previous opinion piece, I argued against complacency and for continued vigilance, as the COVID-19 pandemic is far from over. While there is much talk of the Sars-CoV-2 virus becoming “endemic” in most countries, there is still some confusion about the meaning of the term with some experts warning that “a disease can be endemic and both widespread and still deadly”.
But perhaps a more important and interesting question is when, and in what form, will the next pandemic take place?
The 21st century alone has seen at least seven pandemics at approximately two-to-three-year intervals beginning with the original SARS virus in 2003 (SARS-CoV-1), so the question of the next pandemic is centered on “when” and not “if”. On reflection, many lessons have been learned during the COVID-19 and other past pandemics, which could help us better prepare for, and respond to, the next pandemic. Four key lessons learned are particularly important in helping us forecast or predict the next pandemic.
First, what may cause the next pandemic? The next global pandemic will most likely be caused by a zoonotic virus referring to an infectious disease that is transmitted between species from animals to humans. Such a virus will likely originate in bats or other small mammalian species that have somehow “spilled over” to human populations.
The virus is likely to have RNA, rather than DNA, as its genetic material, as RNA is known to be rather unstable genetically, is often segmented and can undergo many mutations, which give rise to multiple “quasi-species” or variants as was seen with the SARS-CoV2 virus, as well as the potential for recombination between viral strains. Likely candidates for causing the next pandemic include coronaviruses, influenza and perhaps the Nipah virus. The recent upsurge in influenza cases globally is perhaps an early warning sign.
Second, where is it likely to occur? It is highly probable the next pandemic will originate or happen at tropical latitudes and middle altitudes in regions particularly affected by climate change and global warming. Within these regions, the pandemic will most likely emerge in an area of high human population density. It is a fact that most epidemics in the past 80 years or so have occurred or started in large urban centers.
In this regard, it is a source of concern that 60 percent of the global population is estimated to be going to live in urban areas by 2030. Another study found the rise of megacities was particularly seen in Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia and South Asia where 74 percent, 65 percent and 55 percent of the population respectively will live in cities by the year 2050.
