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ASEAN can only matter if Indonesia does as a pan Indo-Pacific power
What makes Indonesia unique is the extent to which its people have embraced the importance of democracy.
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President Joko Widodo (center) speaks during a retreat session during the 42nd ASEAN Summit in Labuan Bajo on May 11, 2023.
(AFP/Mast Irham)
As the chair of ASEAN, it is natural for Indonesia to project its truest potential. Thus, the theme “ASEAN Matters: The Epicentrum of Growth” is not surprising.
Indonesia does have the ability to perform at least nine tasks in the Asia-Pacific region, or, if one must, the Indo-Pacific. It is ironic that most analysts do not readily understand them.
First and foremost, Indonesia is a democracy, bar none. While the concept of rule of law is not perfect, the same can be said about any number of democracies in the world. What makes Indonesia unique is the extent to which its people have embraced the importance of democracy. Whether this can be reversed or not, also depends on the people of Indonesia, not any external powers.
Second, if “ASEAN matters”, that is because Indonesia does too. Indonesia is one of the nine countries identified by Paul Kennedy of Yale University as a pivotal power. If Indonesia implodes, the whole contiguous region is affected. This is a distinction that belongs to Brazil, Mexico, Algeria, Egypt, South Africa, Turkey, Pakistan and India. Alternatively, when Indonesia thrives, the rest of the region grows with it.
Third, Indonesia has a geographical span that is akin to spreading from France’s northernmost border to Turkey’s easternmost Anatolia. To get any grand strategy right, great powers that sit in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) must get Indonesia right, and only then ASEAN, for that matter, the East Asian Summit (EAS). The latter is an annual event that is held back-to-back with the year-end ASEAN Summit.
Third, Indonesia has a population with an average age that is just 29 years old. Unlike China, Japan and South Korea, all of which are greying, Indonesia does not have that problem yet. In the event of severe climate change, the likelihood of 285 million Indonesians having the ability to bear the unbearable is consequentially higher.
Fourth, if geography invariably dictates the geopolitical and geo-economic destiny depth of a country, Indonesia is the sixth-largest maritime power in the world in the sense that it has an exclusive economic zone (EEZ) that is just behind those of France, the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom and Australia.
