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China, ASEAN need stable South China Sea
ASEAN centrality bears the potential of the bloc being an independent diplomatic force and even a mediator among major powers in Asia-Pacific.
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China’s warship Zhanjiang prepares to take part in the 2023 Multilateral Naval Exercise Komodo (MNEK) in Indonesia in early June 2023. ASEAN countries and partners, including the United States, participated in the joint naval drills. (China Defense Ministry)
H
istory is full of twists and turns. During my last months as a United Nations correspondent in New York City back in 2016, my colleagues talked about the South China Sea arbitration all the time. The situation seemed on the verge of a diplomatic or military showdown.
In the months that followed, amid the changing political landscape in the Philippines, the country and China buried the hatchet, which led to a comparatively tranquil period in the South China Sea.
Seven years later, the Philippines raised the arbitration again. Tensions rose when the Philippines accused the Chinese Coast Guard of firing water cannon against Philippine boats trying to send construction materials to a grounded vessel at Ren'ai Reef, part of China's Nansha Islands. It makes me wonder if the dialogue surrounding the South China Sea has returned to square one.
Some media outlets and pundits are trying to hype the tense environment ahead of the ASEAN Summit in Jakarta, once again picturing China as a bully that tries to take on Southeast Asian countries and change the status quo.
These observations lack an understanding of the foreign policies of regional countries and the rationale behind ASEAN's political ambitions, which make China and Southeast Asian countries highly unlikely to ignore the guardrails that can prevent the situation from running off track. In a word, they all know very well that they need a stable South China Sea.
First, China respects and supports "ASEAN centrality". The notion refers to ASEAN goals, including foreign policy autonomy, regional integration, and a stronger presence in geopolitical issues and global governance. It stems from the long tradition of non-alliance in Southeast Asia. It bears the potential of ASEAN countries being an independent diplomatic force and even a mediator among major powers in Asia-Pacific.
Besides, Indonesia is an active promoter of the ASEAN version of the Indo-Pacific outlook, a clear sign of their rejection of the strategic arrangement of the United States and NATO.
