The country’s political landscape has changed after the announcement that former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan will partner with National Awakening Party (PKB) chairman Muhaimin ‘’Cak Imin’’ Iskandar as presidential and vice-presidential candidates. The Coalition of Change for Unity, which has until now opposed the current government and has selected Anies as its presidential candidate, has moved closer to President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s policy lines, turning the 2024 presidential election into a race among the “President’s men”.

The drama surrounding the naming of Cak Imin as Anies’ running mate created turbulence within the Coalition of Change, which consists of the NasDem (National Democratic) Party, the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and the Democratic Party. The disappointed Democratic Party, which had proposed that its chairman, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono, be Anies’ running mate, decided to leave the coalition, while PKS remains undecided as it waits for its supreme council to convene. PKS decided not to send its representatives to the declaration event for the Anies-Cak Imin partnership in Surabaya, East Java last weekend.

With the departure of the Democrats, PKS is the only opposition party within the Coalition of Change, while NasDem and new member PKB are both major pro-Jokowi parties that are expected to protect Jokowi’s legacies. Even if PKS decides to leave the coalition, Nasdem and PKB have enough seats in the House to name their own presidential and vice-presidential candidates.

Some political analysts suspect that the decision to pair Cak Imin with Anies’ was made at the behest of President Jokowi. Soon after making a deal with Cak Imin, NasDem chairman Surya Paloh met with Jokowi at the State Palace on Aug. 31.  Jokowi’s blessing is crucial to Surya if he wants to keep NasDem in the ruling coalition.

The situation must remind the Democrats of the 2019 presidential election, when the party was not able to form a political coalition and name their own presidential candidate. It has been reported that the Democrats are approaching Jokowi’s Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P). The Democrats’ wish to join the PDI-P coalition, however, will depend on the blessing of PDI-P chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri, who has been reluctant to meet with Democratic Party supervisory council chairman Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, after losing to him twice in the 2004 and 2009 presidential elections.

The announcement of the Anies-Cak Imin pair has also opened the possibility of creating a fourth axis, as the United Development Party’s (PPP) adopted politician Sandiaga Uno – a Jokowi loyalist – has approached the Democrats and PKS in hopes of forming a new coalition. This would pave the way for a fourth presidential candidate to contest the 2024 presidential election alongside Anies, PDI-P presidential candidate Ganjar Pranowo and Move Forward Coalition candidate Prabowo Subianto. The last two are both Jokowi loyalists.

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