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Analysis: Jokowi consolidates power ahead of 2024 elections
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Megawati Sukarnoputri presents a book about herself titled “The Brave Lady“ to President Joko “Jokowi“ Widodo during her birthday celebration in Jakarta on January 23, 2019. (JP/Dhoni Setiawan)
President Joko ‘'Jokowi'' Widodo is consolidating power around himself ahead of the 2024 elections by nominating his confidante, newly installed Army Chief of Staff Gen. Agus Subiyanto to replace Adm. Yudho Margono as the Indonesian Military (TNI) commander due to retirement. The President is also reportedly replacing State Intelligence Agency (BIN) chief Budi Gunawan with former Army chief of staff Gen. Dudung Abdurachman.
The rapidity with which the TNI and BIN leadership appointments are being realigned to the contemporary political constellation is significant, in light of the growing differences between Jokowi and Megawati Soekarnoputri, matron and chair of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) that helped elevate him to the presidency in 2014. Both Yudho and Budi are said to have closer ties with Megawati and the PDI-P than with Jokowi.
Jokowi's relationship with Megawati and the PDI-P has soured since he gave his blessing to his eldest son Gibran Rakabuming Raka to run for the vice presidency alongside Prabowo Subianto, the presidential candidate of the Gerindra Party-led Onward Indonesia Coalition (KIM). Both Jokowi and Gibran are still card-carrying members of the PDI-P, which has nominated Ganjar Pranowo as its presidential candidate.
Although he is constitutionally barred from seeking reelection for a third term, Jokowi has publicly stated that intervening in the 2024 presidential election for the nation's best interests was his moral obligation as an outgoing president, seeing as a regime change was a highly vulnerable period.
Meanwhile, the sensitive information on political parties he consumes on a daily basis from BIN, the TNI, the National Police and the Financial Transaction Reports and Analysis Centre (PPATK) suggests that he holds most, if not all, of the cards in the context of next year's election and is thus the strongest figure by default.
Jokowi's nomination of Agus as TNI chief might meet with some hurdles at the House of Representatives, however, as without the PDI-P, Jokowi commands less than 50 per cent of support in the House. Still, the House has set no precedent in its current session to either oppose or reject the President's nominee for TNI chief. Besides, House Commission II overseeing domestic governance has approved the amendment to the General Elections Commission (KPU) regulation to pave the way for Gibran to contest next year's election, regardless of the protests from the PDI-P faction.
If Agus is confirmed as TNI chief, there are two strong candidates to succeed him as the Army chief of staff: Army Strategic Reserves Command (Kostrad) commander Lt. Gen. Maruli Simanjuntak and National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) head Lt. Gen. Suharyanto. Jokowi is likely to appoint Maruli, who once served as commander of the Surakarta Military District. More importantly, Maruli is a son-in-law of Jokowi's righthand man, Coordinating Maritime Affairs and Investment Minister Luhut Binsar Panjaitan.
