President Joko ‘'Jokowi'' Widodo is consolidating power around himself ahead of the 2024 elections by nominating his confidante, newly installed Army Chief of Staff Gen. Agus Subiyanto to replace Adm. Yudho Margono as the Indonesian Military (TNI) commander due to retirement. The President is also reportedly replacing State Intelligence Agency (BIN) chief Budi Gunawan with former Army chief of staff Gen. Dudung Abdurachman.

The rapidity with which the TNI and BIN leadership appointments are being realigned to the contemporary political constellation is significant, in light of the growing differences between Jokowi and Megawati Soekarnoputri, matron and chair of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) that helped elevate him to the presidency in 2014. Both Yudho and Budi are said to have closer ties with Megawati and the PDI-P than with Jokowi.

Jokowi's relationship with Megawati and the PDI-P has soured since he gave his blessing to his eldest son Gibran Rakabuming Raka to run for the vice presidency alongside Prabowo Subianto, the presidential candidate of the Gerindra Party-led Onward Indonesia Coalition (KIM). Both Jokowi and Gibran are still card-carrying members of the PDI-P, which has nominated Ganjar Pranowo as its presidential candidate.

Although he is constitutionally barred from seeking reelection for a third term, Jokowi has publicly stated that intervening in the 2024 presidential election for the nation's best interests was his moral obligation as an outgoing president, seeing as a regime change was a highly vulnerable period.

Meanwhile, the sensitive information on political parties he consumes on a daily basis from BIN, the TNI, the National Police and the Financial Transaction Reports and Analysis Centre (PPATK) suggests that he holds most, if not all, of the cards in the context of next year's election and is thus the strongest figure by default.

Jokowi's nomination of Agus as TNI chief might meet with some hurdles at the House of Representatives, however, as without the PDI-P, Jokowi commands less than 50 per cent of support in the House. Still, the House has set no precedent in its current session to either oppose or reject the President's nominee for TNI chief. Besides, House Commission II overseeing domestic governance has approved the amendment to the General Elections Commission (KPU) regulation to pave the way for Gibran to contest next year's election, regardless of the protests from the PDI-P faction.

If Agus is confirmed as TNI chief, there are two strong candidates to succeed him as the Army chief of staff: Army Strategic Reserves Command (Kostrad) commander Lt. Gen. Maruli Simanjuntak and National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) head Lt. Gen. Suharyanto. Jokowi is likely to appoint Maruli, who once served as commander of the Surakarta Military District. More importantly, Maruli is a son-in-law of Jokowi's righthand man, Coordinating Maritime Affairs and Investment Minister Luhut Binsar Panjaitan.

Reports also indicate that Jokowi will likely replace Budi with former Army chief of staff Dudung Abdurachman as the intelligence chief. Jokowi reportedly gained confidence in Dudung following a conflict with PDI-P senior politician Effendy Simbolon. Asked about the rumor that he would be replacing Budi, Dudung replied that he was loyal to the President.

However, our sources said Jokowi would retain Budi as BIN chief because he had demonstrated his loyalty. This was especially evident in Budi's implicit statement of support for Prabowo on March 21, during the opening ceremony of the Papua Youth Creative Hub in Jayapura, when he said Jokowi's aura of leadership had been transferred to Prabowo.

What’s more

If Agus is confirmed as TNI chief and Maruli as Army chief of staff, Jokowi will be surrounded by the "Solo Gang", referring to another name for the President's hometown of Surakarta. Jokowi and Agus have known each other since their time in Surakarta as mayor and military district commander, respectively. After Jokowi became president, he appointed Agus as chief of the Presidential Security Detail (Paspampres).

National Police chief Gen. Listyo Sigit Prabowo has known the President since he served under Jokowi's mayorship as the Surakarta Police chief, until his subsequent appointment as a presidential aide. Because of his close ties to Jokowi, Listyo has survived a number of major scandals that have embroiled the National Police, including the fatal shooting of a junior aide by then-internal affairs chief Insp. Gen. Ferdy Sambo and a major drug case involving then-West Sumatra police chief Insp. Gen. Teddy Minahasa.

In addition, Jokowi appointed Hadi Tjahjanto as agrarian affairs and spatial planning minister after Hadi had served as TNI chief in 2018-2021. Like Agus and Listyo, Hadi has known the President since his Surakarta mayorship, when Hadi was stationed at the Adi Soemarmo Air Force base.

What we’ve heard

The source in the Palace states that the nomination of the Army Chief of Staff Gen. Agus as the candidate for the TNI chief is one of President Jokowi's efforts to consolidate his power ahead of the 2024 presidential election. Several officials who served in Surakarta when Jokowi was mayor, such as Listyo Sigit Prabowo and Hadi Tjahjanto, are now in the President's inner circle. "The President wants only his trusted people around him when the elections take place," says this source.

This source said that the previous Army chief of staff Gen. Dudung was considered to have a close relationship with the PDI-P. Dudung's father-in-law is Maj. Gen. (ret) Cholid Ghozali, who once served as chairman of the Baitul Muslimin Indonesia, a wing of the PDI-P. When Dudung had conflicts with Effendi Simbolon some time ago, he was defended by senior officials of the PDI-P.

Agus's nomination at House of Representatives Commission I is expected to go smoothly. The retirement term of TNI chief Adm. Yudo will end later this month. Although the relationship between the President and the PDI-P is currently uneasy, it is expected that this will not hinder Agus' nomination. "Agus is one of the President's close associates," they said.

Currently, the relationship between President Jokowi and the PDI-P is cool due to the nomination of Jokowi's eldest son, Gibran, as a candidate for vice president alongside Prabowo Subianto. This conflict is expected to have an impact on the position of the BIN chief. Sources in the PDI-P speculate that Jokowi will not remove Budi from the post of BIN chief. "Such a rotation would only worsen Jokowi's relations with the PDI-P," said the source.

Disclaimer

This content is provided by Tenggara Strategics in collaboration with The Jakarta Post to serve the latest comprehensive and reliable analysis on Indonesia’s political and business landscape. Access the latest edition of Tenggara Backgrounder to read the articles listed below:

Politics

1. President Jokowi’s royal flush on new power play
2. Firli, habitual evader of scandals: Will he get away again?
3. 2024 presidential candidates and their eight ‘missions’             

Business and Economy

1. RI seeks to kickstart coal-fired power plant retirement ahead of COP 28
2. LRT in crisis, 103 daily trips canceled due to worn-out wheels
3. Once blacklisted by FATF, Indonesia is now 40th member
4. Tax exemptions to revitalize property sales under Rp 2 billion

    

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