Her attack was measured, sufficient to convey anger before party supporters, but not enough to break the complex relations she has with the President, who remains powerful.

In the Feb. 14 elections, Megawati supports the candidacy of former Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo while Jokowi has thrown his weight behind his defense minister, Prabowo Subianto, who is running with his 36-year-old son Gibran Rakabuming Raka.

Although constitutionally barred from running for a third term, Jokowi has used his power to influence the elections, including when he pushed his son to run as vice president. He won in 2014 and 2019 on the PDI-P ticket. Now as a kingmaker, he is winning the battle against Megawati, as indicated by most surveys, which put Prabowo in the lead. Ganjar trails last place in third position, behind former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan.

This explains why Megawati was circumspect in her speech. Not only is she losing the presidency, but the PDI-P’s position as the largest party is also at risk as many who voted for the party the last time around say they are switching their allegiance and following Jokowi’s lead. Opinion surveys show the PDI-P is losing the huge lead it had in 2019, and is neck and neck with Gerindra, the party founded and chaired by Prabowo. This would be a double blow for the PDI-P if it simultaneously lost the presidential and legislative votes.

It did not escape Megawati’s attention that some recent events have shown the military, police and civil servants – all under the President’s control – supporting the Prabowo-Gibran ticket. As a former president herself, she reminded members of these three state institutions that they are sworn to neutrality.

Megawati said the PDI-P won the 2014 and 2019 legislative elections because the people were behind the party, and not because of the President it had backed. This claim will be tested on Feb. 14, when the PDI-P runs without Jokowi. But, just for the record, the party came second in the two previous elections in 2004 and 2009.

Megawati knows she has to play her cards right. The party expelled Gibran and Jokowi’s son-in-law Bobby Nasution, both elected on PDI-P tickets as mayors of Surakarta in Central Java and Medan in North Sumatra, for not toeing the party line. Jokowi, who is also a card-carrying party member, is another story. She has refrained from firing him despite his constant defiance. He knows his power and is using it. But how much more abuse can she really take?

In another clear snub to Megawati, Jokowi traveled to three Southeast Asian countries this week to avoid the PDI-P anniversary meeting. He had attended all previous meetings in his capacity as President, and each time was given the honor to give a speech.

Jokowi continues to exercise some control, albeit indirectly, on all seven parties, including the PDI-P, in his coalition government. Insiders say recent cabinet meetings have turned cold with party-affiliated ministers showing split allegiance between the President and their party bosses. More than half of the cabinet members are running for office.

Talk about clinging to power, all the members of the coalition are doing exactly the same. They are refusing to quit the coalition government. None of the parties, including the PDI-P, are recalling their ministers from the cabinet, and Jokowi would not expel them either.

To the general public, it matters little who is winning the battle between the two kingmakers. And just exactly how long Jokowi and Megawati keep up this charade is for them to decide. What is clear, however, is that they are not only confusing voters but they are affecting the effectiveness of the government and undermining the quality of democracy and of the elections.

The sooner they make a clean break, the better it is for the nation.