The military and conservative royal supporters will grow stronger and emerge as the most powerful force in Thai politics.
SEAN leaders, especially President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, should be ready for a possible reprisal from Myanmar’s junta leader Gen. Min Aung Hlaing because it was Indonesia that sponsored ASEAN’s punitive measures against the army general two months after he toppled the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021.
“Just do the same to Thailand if you dare,” the senior general could tell other ASEAN leaders.
The junta leader has found the right time to humiliate ASEAN leaders, who have practically suspended Myanmar’s ASEAN membership because of the military coup. The general can now ask the ASEAN leaders to punish the Thai military for stifling democracy. The Thai generals have turned out to be no less brutal, if not more so, than their Myanmar counterparts.
During the ASEAN emergency summit in Jakarta on April 24, 2021, the regional bloc leaders and Gen. Hlaing agreed on the five-point principles to address the Myanmar crisis, namely an immediate end to violence in the country; dialogue among all parties; the appointment of a special envoy; humanitarian assistance by ASEAN; and that the special envoy of ASEAN would meet with all factions in Myanmar.
After more than three years, however, the junta has not implemented the five-point consensus. It was the junta’s disrespect for the consensus that prompted ASEAN leaders to suspend the junta from any official meeting hosted by ASEAN.
A political crisis has unfolded in Thailand. Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin will lose his seat, the Move Forward Party (MFP), the winner of last year’s election will be dissolved and Thailand’s most controversial but also most powerful politician, Thaksin Shinawatra, will be jailed.
All of this will happen within a few weeks. Betting markets will very likely agree with the above conclusion, probably with some minor corrections.
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