In its response, Beijing said "The Philippines should bear the consequences of its infringing behavior”.

This came just after Manila and Beijing concluded a new bilateral negotiation. After repeated clashes involving their navies, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Chen Xiaodong and his Philippine counterpart Theresa Lazaro agreed to restore trust and build confidence between the two countries in the South China Sea last Tuesday, several days after the Second Thomas Shoal incident.  

President Marcos has chosen a different path than his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte, who opted for rapprochement with Beijing for economic gain while maintaining Manila’s claim over the resources-rich waters. Marcos has insisted that his country has the right to defend its territory and seek help from others.

International news agencies reported that Chinese coast guard personnel, armed with knives and spears, boarded Philippine Navy dinghies and confiscated firearms on July 2 – the first intervention since a new Chinese rule authorizing its coast guard to detain foreigners who trespass into waters it proclaims as its own came into force on June 15. Some described the clash as unnecessary and “childish”.

For a big power like China, such a show of force against neighbors who are weaker and economically dependent on it is unnecessary. Overreaction from China will not harm other parties but the country’s international image, at a time when dialogue to build trust is all that South China Sea claimants need.

It is unlikely the tension between the two countries will cease anytime soon as long as both sides, and especially the more powerful of the two, believe that the use of force is a viable option. Negotiation is always the best way to find a long-lasting solution.

Tension between China and the Philippines heated up after the Hague-based Permanent Court of Arbitration ruled in favor of the Philippines in 2016, turning down China’s claim of ownership of nearly the whole South China Sea. Beijing has refused to adhere to the ruling.

Other ASEAN member states Brunei, Malaysia and Vietnam are also claimants to the sea. Indonesia is not, but it is not immune to conflict with China, which considers Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone in the North Natuna Sea part of its traditional fishing grounds.

While other claimants avoid a direct conflict with China, the Philippines has sought the United States’ backing to counterbalance China. The Philippines must be disappointed with ASEAN because of its failure to show solidarity in facing China.

Manila and Washington have signed several military agreements, including the right of the US to use Philippine military bases for the interests of both countries. The Philippines will also sign a military cooperation agreement with Japan today.

ASEAN member states may say the dispute with China is a matter for the Philippines to sort out on its own, but the conflict could get out of hand and affect the whole region, or even the world, given the strategic position of the South China Sea.

President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo has repeatedly promised to take all the necessary measures to protect the Natuna waters from foreign incursion. President-elect Prabowo Subianto shares the same nationalistic view about the country’s territorial integrity. Robust economic ties between Indonesia and China, however, have overshadowed the maritime territorial dispute.

Overreaction by any side in the South China Sea, however, will harm everyone, including ASEAN neighbors. Unless China and ASEAN show genuine commitment to completing the long overdue talks on the Code of Conduct on the South China Sea, we can expect more conflicts to take place in the disputed waters.