These unfortunate statistics are among the key findings of the V-Dem Democracy Report 2023, titled Defiance in the Face of Autocratization. The report places Indonesia among the countries that are backsliding toward autocracy, despite its status as an electoral democracy.

While not all experts agree with the notion of global democratic decline, the pushback from scholars like Adam Przeworski, a leading political scientist, who dismissed the report as a mere "publicity stunt" on Twitter, has fueled a contentious debate over the state of democracy around the world. This debate is among the most crucial of the past decade.

V-Dem is not the only organization to present large-scale data showing a trend of democratic backsliding in most parts of the world. Other groups, such as Freedom House and Polity, have also shown a similar trajectory over the past few years. All of these major organizations share a common stance that many countries worldwide have experienced a decline in democratic values, or even a direct U-turn toward autocracy, over the past decade.

However, critics have also made an important point about not exaggerating the claim of democratic decline.

If there is one way to summarize the core problem of this decade's debate, it is the question of how we define democracy when assessing a country's level of democratic values. The term "democracy" can be divided into two definitions: minimalist and maximalist.

The minimalist definition of democracy considers competitive elections as the core element of democracy. Przeworski, for example, advocates for this definition and argues that elections enable societies to manage conflicts and ensure that every victory is temporary, thus so is every defeat. Elections are the primary aspect of democracy because they allow the public to have a say in policy decisions made by elites, and they serve as a credible commitment to voters by controlling who governs the country (as argued by Acemoglu and Robinson, 2009).

The maximalist definition of democracy expands the definition to include some liberal rights and norms, as suggested by Robert Dahl's classic term of "polyarchy". Under this definition, elections are only one component of democracy and not necessarily the most important one. This broader definition of democracy has significant implications for the indexing process, as a country with competitive elections but conservative values may fall under a low degree of democracy by this definition.

According to V-Dem, the top declining indicators contributing to democratic backsliding are government censorship efforts, which signal a lack of freedom of expression. For instance, former United States president Donald Trump and Brazil's former populist leader, president Jair Bolsonaro, employed this tactic during their terms, exacerbating political polarization in the country.

However, despite the threats of populism and deep polarization, democracy has still managed to thrive in both countries. Despite the turbulence, the election results stood, and democratic institutions were once again proven to be durable in the two largest democracies.

Even more reassuring, in addition to the institutions, voters in both countries have proven to play a crucial role in pushing back against politicians who attempt to undermine democratic institutions from the inside, using the ballot box. Voters are the most important check on the power of politicians. To put it simply, the minimalist camp would say to the maximalist, “You are exaggerating the real situation here”.

As we observe the insightful debate among experts, we in Indonesia can learn something important. We must be cautious when pronouncing democratic backsliding, as both the leaders and the voters may share the perception that democracy is no longer worth defending.

While populist leaders often use economic justifications to maintain power, the demand side of democracy is mostly overlooked and can be even more concerning. For instance, as Przeworski and his coauthor in 2019 argue, erosion of democracy occurs when citizens become highly supportive of the incumbents.

It is clear from the V-Dem report that Indonesia, as the third largest democracy in the world, can play a significant role in shaping the global state of democracy, either for better or for worse. One unique feature of V-Dem's Liberal Democracy Index is its use of population-weighted measures to determine how many people in the world are living under democracy. This approach implies that their general claim will be heavily influenced by the dynamics of large countries such as India.

The number also signals which political values are dominating the current world we live in. That is why all eyes will now turn to Indonesia, as the country will have a great impact in the struggle to promote democracy in the region and the world.

According to the V-Dem report, Indonesia's primary challenge is the decline of academic and cultural expression, which is not surprising as it has been a long-standing concern of activists and scholars. Other national-level surveys, such as the one conducted by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Indonesia, have also documented public concerns about the erosion of freedom of expression.

However, it is evident from these public opinion results that voters tend to reject the idea of postponing elections. Moreover, the young voters, who constitute the largest segment of voters in the upcoming 2024 general election, have shown a high commitment to democracy as the best system, as evidenced by the latest national survey conducted by CSIS.

The voter turnout in the previous national and local elections has also been relatively high. This suggests that Indonesian democracy remains resilient, and its citizens remain engaged in the democratic process, which is a promising sign for the country's future and good news for the world.

This resilience should be promoted not only by political figures but also by the voters themselves. The last 10 years have been challenging for Indonesian democracy, but during this period, we have also witnessed lively public protests on the streets and in social media that consistently hold the state accountable.

While freedom of expression is undeniably under threat, it is not necessarily only coming from the top but also from the horizontal direction. Although not always, we have seen on some occasions that the state has been responsive to public demand and changed its policy direction.

Having said that, there is still room for a critical assessment of our democratic progress, but at the same time, we need to be careful not to overdiagnose the decline. The year 2024 is a test not only for elites but also for voters alike, and the world is closely watching Indonesia.

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The writer is a researcher at the Department of Politics and Social Change, Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Indonesia, and a PhD student in Political Science, the University of Toronto.