Since its debut last year as the first electoral alliance to be formed ahead of the election, the KIB has been struggling to find its direction because Golkar Party, the National Mandate Party (PAN) and the United Development Party (PPP) have no strong name to match frontrunners in public opinion polls.

The future of the alliance came into question in late April after PPP threw its support behind the presidential bid of popular Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo and his Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the ruling party to which President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo belongs.

Last month, PPP called for the dissolution of the KIB if members cannot agree on backing Ganjar’s presidential run.

And most recently, the Muslim-based pro-government party, together with PDI-P and non-legislature Hanura Party, established a volunteer group headquarters for Ganjar’s presidential run in Jakarta on Thursday. They seek to work with grassroots supporters to help Ganjar reclaim his polling lead for next year's election after some of Jokowi's loyal supporter groups threw their support behind Ganjar's likely opponent Prabowo Subianto of Gerindra Party.

Following PPP’s lead, PAN began exploratory talks with the PDI-P on Friday, when PAN chairman Zulkifli Hasan visited PDI-P counterpart Megawati Soekarnoputri and discussed behind closed doors their potential cooperation in the upcoming election.

Both PAN and PDI-P however left Friday's meeting without a “final agreement” despite swirling rumors earlier that day PAN would announce its full support for Ganjar’s nomination.

"We discussed and understood many things. And because this is just our first meeting, we will each bring [the talking points of our meeting for internal discussions] and there will be follow-up meetings [between the two political parties]," Zulkifli told the press on Friday.

Erick as running mate

With no deal reached during the meeting, PAN deputy chairman Yandri Susanto said his party remained open to the possibility of backing either Ganjar or Gerindra’s presidential candidate Prabowo in 2024. PAN also intended to propose State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) Minister Erick Thohir as a potential running mate for Ganjar or Prabowo in any upcoming talks with other political parties.

Read also: PAN mulls fourth alliance as Change coalition closes ranks

Yandri also said a recently floated alternative of forming a fourth electoral bloc with Golkar was still in the cards, with Golkar chair Airlangga Hartarto and Zulkifli on its ticket, if talks with other parties fail to nominate Ganjar or Prabowo.

“So, either PAN supports Ganjar or Prabowo, or pairs Airlangga with Zulkifli as this particular pairing remains highly discussed internally,” Yandri said.

PDI-P chairwoman Megawati said she would welcome PAN’s proposal of a potential running mate but stressed the final decision would rest in her hands. "I have to sort out [whoever] is best for the benefit of the nation, not for parties,” she said.

Diverging paths

PAN’s move exploring possible alliance with PDI-P has prompted questions over the fate of KIB as the alliance members began considering diverging paths ahead of the 2024 presidential and legislative elections.

Golkar recently hinted at the possibility of supporting Prabowo's presidential candidacy in 2024 in exchange for naming Airlangga as a running mate for the Gerindra politician.

Read also: IB should be dissolved if parties fail to agree on backing Ganjar, PPP says

PAN’s Zulkifli stressed the KIB remained intact to date, but acknowledged its members may soon have to accept the possibility of it disbanding.

"KIB [does still exist] but the aspirations [of member parties] are starting to diverge; two members [Golkar and PAN] are still on the same page, while another one [the PPP, has decided to work with] the PDI-P," Zulkifli said on Friday. "If later [we all coalesce with PDI-P], then we will be in the same boat. If not, there will be a final discussion of how we will leave things."

Political researcher Arya Fernandes of the Jakarta-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies said the lack of consensus since its formation about who KIB members would decide on for its presidential and vice-presidential pair has left the alliance in a vulnerable state.

“KIB members now seem to be seeking ways to rescue themselves as they find it difficult to find a new consensus in this state,” Arya said.