While trade between China and ASEAN is almost $500 billion, India-ASEAN trade is just over $70 billion.
t is said that global and regional summits, on most occasions, are high on optics and low on results. The desire to expect tangible results through interactions between the powerful of the globe is tempting, but all the evidence suggests that ambitions in most cases get derailed during the stage of protracted negotiation among senior officials of nations.
With that in mind, it is wise to keep expectations moderated when the leaders of the 10 ASEAN arrive in India to mark the 25th anniversary of the India- ASEAN partnership.
Yet this marks an important moment for India to display greater heft in a region saddled by tensions over the last three years. ASEAN is a worthy sphere to penetrate given its geopolitical importance and gross domestic product (GDP) of US$2.7 trillion — although most of it is dominated by Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines and Malaysia.
India’s own economy, while underperforming the high expectations placed on it, is poised to be the fastest growing over the next two years. India’s foreign minister has emphasized the importance of connectivity, commerce and culture in shaping ties between ASEAN and India.
An important factor has helped in accelerating the “3 C’s”: China. With a distracted Donald Trump at the White House, China has moved swiftly from being assertive to getting belligerent in seizing the initiative in the South China Sea.
The Philippines, which tried economic diplomacy with the dragon after a new president took over, realized that the approach has backfired.
Ditto with Vietnam which has called for greater Indian investment in the South China Sea as a counter to China. Other major countries in ASEAN will have to be watchful as well.
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