TheJakartaPost
Please Update your browser
Your browser is out of date, and may not be compatible with our website. A list of the most popular web browsers can be found below.
Just click on the icons to get to the download page.
Year of the pig doesn't end economic cycle
The year of the pig is traditionally the last in the Chinese astrological cycle. Its arrival in 2019 coincides with concern among some observers that the current global economic cycle is coming to an end.
Change Size
Pig shaped lanterns were seen at Chinese New Year Festivities in Surakarta, welcoming Year of the Pig (JP/Stefanus Ajie)
T
he year of the pig is traditionally the last in the Chinese astrological cycle. Its arrival in 2019 coincides with concern among some observers that the current global economic cycle is coming to an end.
That’s not our interpretation. Notwithstanding some signs of slower global growth, notably from China, we think the current cycle may have more room to run.
After years of heady growth, China now faces a mix of challenges that threaten to curb its momentum as trade tensions collide with China’s efforts to restructure its economy. Amid slowing growth, we think there could be greater dispersion in corporate earnings that will ultimately sift out the winners from the losers in all markets.
Our near-term outlook is cautious. We don’t foresee a hard landing as we think China’s state-directed system offers a measure of confidence in its ability to execute policies. So far, we think China has been able to balance economic growth with structural reforms.
