In terms of geopolitical strategy, Japan will remain one of the most important economic partners for Indonesia and ASEAN. But it will soon be part of a nostalgic, unforgettable memory or romance as at present and in the near future, the region will be more dependent on China.
young Japanese scholar expressed his curiosity about Foreign Minister Retno LP Marsudi’s intention to fly to Fujian in China to meet with her counterpart, Wang Yi, shortly after she and Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto held talks with Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi in Tokyo last week.
Japan might feel irritated by the itinerary, but Indonesia could explain that the visit to Fujian “was planned as a return visit to Minister Wang Yi”.
In Fujian, Retno was accompanied by Trade Minister Muhammad Lutfi and State-Owned Enterprises (SOE) Minister Erick Tohir. Singapore’s Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan, Malaysia’s Hishammuddin Hussein and Teodoro Locsin of the Philippines were also in Fujian last week for their own bilateral talks with Wang Yi.
“It’s an interesting move to watch because it suggests ASEAN’s strategic values amid constraints in China-United States, China-European Union relations,” said the fluent-Chinese speaking expert in his text message to me.
Japan is very active in boosting the role of the Quad’s — and informal group that includes the US, Japan, India and Australia — move to counter China. The group recently offered abundant supplies of COVID-19 vaccines, mostly produced in India, to the region. A few days ago, India revealed its plan to delay its exports due to a domestic hike in coronavirus cases.
Previously, two Japanese friends who have deep knowledge of Indonesia and China also shared with me their concern that Jakarta might prefer Beijing over Tokyo, despite Indonesia and Japan’s solid bilateral relations, especially in terms of the economy and investments. But at the same time, they admit that “we are also very dependent on our exports to China”.
From Fujian, the provincial origin of many Indonesian conglomerates, Retno obtained a crucial endorsement from China to hold a special summit on Myanmar, an assurance of the smooth flow of COVID-19 vaccines and new investment agreements; while in Tokyo, Indonesia ensured the transfer of technology in the production of security and fishery surveillance equipment, with China — in Japan’s mind — as the target.
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