If the presidential election were held today, Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo would win, according to a variety of political surveys. But a brewing power struggle within the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), of which Ganjar is a member, has cast doubt on whether he will have a chance to run in 2024 at all.

Political surveys have consistently shown Ganjar as the most popular potential presidential candidate, second only to President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, another PDI-P member, who is constitutionally barred from seeking reelection.

By that measure, Ganjar seems well positioned to become an electoral frontrunner. His only rivals in current polls are Gerindra Party leader Prabowo Subianto and Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan, who pollsters believe would find it hard to beat him. In a scenario where Ganjar ran against the two figures, he would win the election with 44.6 percent of the vote, leaving Prabowo in second with 25.7 percent and Anies with 21 percent, according to a recent survey by Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC).

The real-world odds, however, seem stacked against the Central Java governor, with his party apparently reluctant to give him the nomination and now seeking electoral alliances for 2024, which could close the door to Ganjar running on another party’s ticket.

“It is not impossible,” said Charta Politika executive director Yunarto Wijaya when asked about the possibility of Ganjar failing to clinch a nomination. “No matter how good someone’s electability numbers are, they may end up with no ticket at all to contest the election.”

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