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Coattail effect, nomination anomalies mean less choice for RI voters, observers say
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A resident walks past a mural representing the 2024 presidential election in Kedung Halang, Bogor, West Java, on June 13. Indonesia will hold its simultaneous legislative and presidential elections on Feb. 14, 2024. (Antara/Arif Firmansyah)
T
he Association for Elections and Democracy (Perludem) watchdog has raised concerns that political parties could exploit quirks in the country’s presidential nomination system alongside the coattail effect to advance their interests at the cost of real voter choice.
“Voter behavior in concurrent [legislative and presidential] elections is such that they’ll vote for the parties that have nominated their preferred presidential candidate," said Perludem's Titi Anggraini in a public discussion held on Sunday.
She made the point in a discussion held by the Indonesian Public Opinion Research and Discussion Group (KedaiKOPI).
The strength of this coattail effect – wherein a party benefits in legislative and local elections by fielding a popular presidential candidate – is evident in a poll released by Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) last week. It used the Golkar Party and Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) as a case study.
“If Golkar were to nominate Ganjar [for the 2024 presidential election], it would result in a pretty significant boost, from 11 percent to 17 percent of votes [for the Golkar Party in the legislature]," SMRC founder Saiful Mujani said.
The hypothetical nomination also resulted in a significant loss of votes for the PDI-P, dropping from 25 percent to 18 percent of the popular vote in the legislature.
“In polls, the PDI-P has consistently ranked first, but it turns out that the party’s dominance is partly because of Ganjar, and he could potentially lure voters away from the PDI-P if he were to jump ship," Saiful said.
