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Presidential race remains competitive
The 2024 presidential race is still no runaway victory, opinion surveys show, even as candidate Prabowo Subianto maintains his lead over competitors Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo, meaning the frontrunner could well face a runoff against either of his rivals.
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Motorized vehicles pass under a pedestrian bridge that has been completely covered by 2024 election banners, as the campaigning season approaches its second month in Jakarta on Dec. 27, 2023. (Antara/Rivan Awal Lingga)
The 2024 presidential race is still no runaway victory, opinion surveys show, even as candidate Prabowo Subianto maintains his lead over competitors Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo, meaning the frontrunner could well face a runoff against either of his rivals.
Two opinion polls, one conducted after the Dec. 12 presidential debate and the other after the Friday vice presidential debate, found that Prabowo and his running mate Gibran Rakabuming Raka kept a significant lead over their rivals Anies and running mate Muhaimin Iskandar as well as Ganjar and running mate Mahfud MD, who were neck and neck for second place.
The post-presidential debate survey, published on Wednesday by the Jakarta-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), found that 43.7 percent of voters favored the Prabowo-Gibran ticket, ahead of the Anies-Muhaimin ticket with 26.1 percent support and Ganjar-Mahfud with 19.4 percent support.
CSIS interviewed 1,300 people of voting age in person nationwide after the first election debate, and the results had a 2.7 percent margin of error at a 95 percent confidence interval.
The post-vice presidential debate survey, published on Tuesday by pollster Indikator Politik Indonesia, found that Prabowo and Gibran led the race with 46.7 percent support. It differed from the CSIS survey in placing the Ganjar-Mahfud ticket in second with 24.5 percent of voter support, while Anies-Muhaimin followed closely behind with 21 percent.
Indikator Politik interviewed 1,217 people of voting age by phone after the second debate, and the findings had a margin of error of 2.9 percent at a 95 percent confidence interval.
With Prabowo polling below 50 percent – the threshold for an outright victory in the three-way vote in February of next year – a runoff between the top two contenders is still likely. Such a runoff would take place on June 26, 2024.
