he Transportation Ministry expects as many as 33.7 million people to participate in the Idul Fitri tradition of mudik (exodus) a week before and after the holiday.
The government said this figure far exceeds the total capacity of intercity trains at 3.3 million, meaning that if the projection stands, some 30.4 million potential travelers will be forced to seek alternative options for travel.
The ministry’s railways director general, Mohamad Risal Wasal, estimated that outgoing mudik travel would peak four days before Idul Fitri and return travel would peak three days after. During these times, the number of potential train passengers could reach 3.4 million, which would exceed passenger capacity.
"During the homecoming peak, around 900,000 passengers will have to use alternative transportation methods," said Risal on Sunday, as quoted by CNBC Indonesia.
The Railways Directorate General used travel data from last year's Idul Fitri season to estimate the number of mudik participants this year. The number of passengers on intercity trains this year is expected to be 13.3 percent higher than last year’s, alongside an increase of 10.3 percent for regional trains and 26.7 percent for commuter trains.
For regional trains, the institution estimates that peak mudik travel times will occur three days before Idul Fitri and two days after. During these times, passengers are expected to number 2.7 million. The capacity of regional trains is 3.3 million.
For commuter trains, peak travel is predicted to fall five days before Idul Fitri and five days after. A total of 14.4 million passengers are expected to use this transportation method, while the total capacity of commuter trains is 41.4 million passengers.
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