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ndonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri made a big impact when she chose Jakarta Governor Joko '€œJokowi'€ Widodo as the PDI-P'€™s presidential candidate, but an element of her decision rarely mentioned is that by picking Jokowi, Megawati has shifted the party to the right in terms of economic policy.

This was the PDI-P'€™s problem 10 years ago. Its policy platform was too nationalistic and impractical. President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and the Democratic Party were able to exploit that in 2004 and 2009.  But today, by selecting a businessman as its presidential candidate, the PDI-P is sending a message to local/foreign investors that reads: '€œDon'€™t worry'€.

I'€™ve never understood the Gerindra Party'€™s strategy of being more '€œsocialist'€ than the PDI-P, when the latter was moving to the right. There'€™s a limit to how many votes you can get by being so left wing. Prabowo Subianto is a pretty lousy political strategist. He has been tricked and outmaneuvered by Megawati. It'€™s strange Prabowo didn'€™t realize why the PDI-P lost so many votes in the last decade. The number of votes gained by appealing to Indonesians on the left is lower than those in the middle. It'€™s even sillier that Prabowo still thinks the bulk of the voters are Javanese farmers.  

First off, most of Java is no longer rural and the percentage working as farmers is most likely lower than the Indonesian average. Gerindra does not have a snowball'€™s chance of winning many rural votes in the outer islands.

Prabowo views Indonesia as he wants to, not as it is. Only 35 percent of the workforce in Indonesia is employed in agriculture, 52 percent of the population lives in urban areas. None of the politicians in Indonesia have rural backgrounds, even Jokowi.

However, the Jakarta governor is the only major candidate to come from a working class/lower middle class urban background, which is the largest and fastest growing group in Indonesia today. This group is far more sophisticated than people make it out to be.

There'€™s a good chance the PDI-P will win 25-35 percent of the vote, meaning it has a much stronger hand in picking a vice president. Gerindra will have to make some very unpleasant compromises, most likely picking a vice president from the Golkar Party or the Democrats.

If Prabowo is to be president, he must first win the first round. Once he goes to the second round, Jokowi will win by a landslide.

 
Weilim
Jakarta