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Sukhoi deal hangs in balance amid US pressure
In February 2018, Indonesia and Russia signed a US$1
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In February 2018, Indonesia and Russia signed a US$1.14 billion purchase contract for 11 Sukhoi jet fighters. It has been two years since the deal was made under then-defense minister Ryamizard Ryacudu and still no shipments have arrived from Moscow.
The billion-dollar deal is reportedly in limbo, with Moscow and analysts pointing to pressures from the United States as the primary reason why Jakarta is dragging its feet in finalizing the purchase.
The State Palace stopped short of confirming the claim, but admitted that a non-technical issue had hampered the process.
Presidential Chief of Staff Moeldoko said the government was still considering a number of issues regarding the deal. "Please wait as there are other factors [to be considered]. It is not just business-to-business, but there are other factors also," he told reporters on Tuesday.
When asked if US lobbying and the fact that President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo was slated to meet with his US counterpart, Donald Trump, next month were part of the considerations, Moeldoko said, "Other factors could be many things."
Other officials, including Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, have been equally evasive when asked about details of the planned Sukhoi purchase.
Prabowo has declined to comment on the matter, saying the future of the deal would be disclosed to the public at a later date.
Last week, the minister met with Coordinating Political, Legal and Security Affairs Minister Mahfud MD and Coordinating Maritime Affairs and Investment Minister Luhut Pandjaitan to discuss the Sukhoi deal but none of the officials were willing to disclose the result of their discussions.
“We discussed potential territorial threats [...]. The others are secret, including arms purchases from other countries,” Mahfud said on Monday when asked about the meeting.
Indonesian Air Force spokesperson Fajar Adrianto told The Jakarta Post on Monday that whether or not the country would buy the Russian jet fighters was up to the defense minister. The minister's spokesman, Dahnil Simanjuntak, however, was quoted by detik.com as saying that the final decision lay with the President.
The US expressed its disappointment over the initial procurement in 2018. Washington has threatened countries before with its Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), which can punish US partners for buying Russian-made military equipment, including aircraft.
However, Indonesia was spared from the CAATSA sanction threats when it purchased a plane last year as the US Congress, backed by former US secretary of defense Jim Mattis, gave the country a waiver. Experts, however, believe that the waiver will require Indonesia to reduce its reliance on Russian arms.
The Russian ambassador has lamented US sanctions on and threats to countries that have bought Russian arms.
“If the US and Russia compete for the Indonesian market and Indonesia chooses the best, most cost-effective arms, that is fair. But the competition is not fair if it is based on sanctions or threats to countries who purchase Russian arms,” Russian Deputy Ambassador to Indonesia Oleg V. Kopylov said in December.
A US Embassy spokesperson, however, said that while Washington was aware Indonesia intended to purchase Russian planes, it did not intend to punish partners like Indonesia.
Some experts say that, while foreign threats are real, Indonesia should put its military interests first and complete the deal.
“Indonesia is a sovereign country. Whether or not we buy [the Sukhoi jets] should depend on the need to strengthen its defense capability, not on foreign threats,” defense expert Curie Maharani told the Post on Monday.
She added that Indonesia had to have a certain strategy of diplomacy with the US to prevent possible CAATSA threats that could result in the US halting its supply of the spare parts that Indonesia needed to maintain its aircraft.
Since 2003, Indonesia has bought 16 Sukhoi jet fighters, 11 SU-30 MK and five SU-27 SK. It also owns 33 American-made F-16 Fighting Falcons, having first purchased one in 1989.
“As long as Donald Trump is still the US president, there are no indications that the US would not use CAATSA. So if Indonesia has no special diplomatic strategy, the other option is to wait for a possible change of president next year,” Curie said.
Military expert Anton Aliabbas said the US was unlikely to sanction Indonesia with CAATSA or a military embargo as the two countries were partners in other strategic areas, such as the South China Sea. China is involved in several disputes with Southeast Asian countries over the waters and the US has spoken in defense of the countries' right to freely navigate the sea.
“If Indonesia is embargoed or such, it will also affect the relationship between Indonesia and the US in a broader context, so I think that will also be an important calculation,” Anton told the Post on Monday.
Curie said that Indonesia should also diversify its arms sources so as to not depend on any one country for arms maintenance. Economically, diversifying defense equipment sources would protect Indonesia from an arms monopoly or a sudden increase in prices.
Anton said that Indonesia needed to learn its lesson, as the US had imposed a military embargo on Indonesia from 1995 to 2005 after the Santa Cruz Massacre in 1991 in Timor Leste, which was then occupied by Indonesia.
“This caused chaos as Indonesia had to cannibalize parts to keep American planes running. It messed with our arms maintenance and management and it is an important lesson,” Anton said. (mfp)
