Not many people read these natural events as omens of things to come, but few people would disagree that a destructive earthquake hitting the capital city, say of a magnitude above 9.0 on the Richter scale that hit Aceh in 2004, would have unimaginable consequences.

In Aceh, there was virtually no government for the first few days until Jakarta sent a team of civil servants, led by former foreign minister Alwi Shihab, to manage the province for the few months until local leaders and staffers got back on their feet.

If this were to happen in Jakarta, which is not an implausible scenario, then Indonesia could be without a national government, putting the security of the entire nation at huge risk.

Among the many arguments put forward for the plan to move the capital from Jakarta, none is more compelling than the fact that national security would be compromised in the event of a destructive natural disaster. It dwarfs the ecological argument that Jakarta is sinking fast, or the political argument that moving the capital to a location in Kalimantan would redress the long-held accusations of the Java-centric government and policies.

The Capital City Law has given Jokowi the legal and political cover to move forward with his new capital project, an idea he launched in his second inauguration speech in 2019.

The COVID-19 pandemic held back the new capital project, but with the law in place, the President can accelerate to make up for lost time. The new city is not likely to be completed by 2045, but he plans to have some government agencies already working out of the new capital in 2024, when he steps down from office. He plans to celebrate Indonesia’s 79^th independence anniversary in 2024 in Nusantara, the name he has given to the new capital.

Jokowi has chosen a location in East Kalimantan, which has had no history of devastating natural disasters like earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions. There were reports of floods in the location, but they are man-made disasters that could be prevented, or mitigated against. While you can also take mitigating steps against earthquakes and tsunamis, you are powerless against a massive disaster like we saw in Aceh.

How likely is Jakarta to be hit by a strong earthquake? Scientists can tell you that it will happen based on historical records of earthquakes caused by shifts in tectonic plates, but they cannot tell you when. It could happen tomorrow, God forbid, or in a hundred years. The increasing frequency of earthquakes felt in Jakarta however, may be signs that the nation should take the likelihood more seriously than in the past.  

If these are not enough of an omen, the recent small eruptions of Mt. Anak Krakatau in the Sunda Strait should complete the picture of a vulnerable national capital. The eruption of Mt. Krakatau (where Anak Krakatau is now) in 1883 brought about massive destruction and a lasting impact on the lives of the people, including in Batavia, the old name of Jakarta.

Every single president since Sukarno has contemplated moving the capital out of Jakarta but as soon as they realized that the cost was prohibitive, they dropped the project for the next leader to take it up, even though the first two, Sukarno and Soeharto after him, ruled for decades. Jokowi, Indonesia’s seventh president who was democratically elected on populist platforms in 2014 and 2019, uncharacteristically chose to take up the project.

The cost is, in fact, the chief and most popular argument used against the project, especially now of all times, when the nation is barely out of the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic recession that came with it. The money for the capital city is best spent on the economy, including in eradicating poverty. But this is a powerful argument that would be used again and again against any president who is bold enough to take it up.

If we agree that national security is at stake, then nothing (or, almost nothing) is too expensive and Indonesia should invest money to ensure its security and defense.

Using the national security perspective could help Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati raise the money that Jokowi needs for the new capital. She could tap into the trillions of rupiah being earmarked to buy weapons to beef up the national defense for the next two decades.

National defense is not merely a matter of having military weapons, but more than that, it is also a matter of protecting the commander-in-chief and the relevant staff from possible harm. Surely, Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, a strong 2024 presidential candidate, could agree to that.

Critics say this is folly on the part of President Jokowi to push the capital city project, given the sheer costs, the amount of work involved and the increasing unpopularity, when he could be doing something better to build a more lasting legacy beyond 2024.

They may be right. But if someday Jakarta is destroyed by a powerful earthquake, the nation may look back and appreciate his decision to go against the wishes of the majority. When that happens, the nation may want to rename Nusantara to “Kota Jokowi” (Jokowi City) or Jokowiville.

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The writer is senior journalist at The Jakarta Post.