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Synergy to strengthen national economic resilience and revival
In the face of increasing global uncertainty and national economic and financial cycles below potential economic capacity, the BI policy mix will remain oriented toward maintaining stability and supporting sustainable economic growth.
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Bank Indonesia (BI) board of governors pose for a photo before the press in the BI Jakarta headquarters on Nov. 11, 2023. (The Jakarta Post/Deni Ghifari)
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gainst a backdrop of global economic moderation and high uncertainty, the national economy in Indonesia has remained resilient with a promising outlook. Bank Indonesia (BI) projects economic growth to reach 4.7-5.5 percent in 2024 before accelerating to 4.8-5.6 percent in 2025.
Inflation will remain under control within the 2.5 percent ± 1 percent target corridor in 2024 and 2025, underpinned by consistent monetary policy, fiscal policy and the National Movement for Food Inflation Control (GNPIP).
External and financial system stability will be maintained, accompanied by rapid digitalization. Some of the global challenges that demand vigilance moving forward include global economic moderation and polarization in the sources of global economic growth, a prolonged disinflation process, higher for longer policy rates in advanced economies, a strong US dollar as well as massive capital outflows from emerging markets to advanced economies. Synergy, therefore, is key for maintaining domestic economic resilience and revival.
The domestic economic outlook for 2024-2025 is promising despite increasing global uncertainty. Rupiah stability will be maintained in 2024 and Indonesia's Balance of Payments (BOP) will bolster external stability in line with the manageable current account deficit forecast in the range of a 0.1-0.9 percent deficit of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024 and a 0.5-1.3 percent deficit of GDP in 2025.
Bank lending/financing will continue improving, with credit growth expected to accelerate from 10-12 percent in 2024 to 11-13 percent in 2025. Digital economic and financial transactions will maintain solid growth, supported by a modern, secure, uninterrupted and reliable payment system.
The value of digital banking transactions in 2024 is projected at Rp 71.58 quadrillion (US$4.62 trillion), with 23.2 percent growth expected and 18.8 percent in 2025 to reach Rp 85.04 quadrillion. E-commerce transactions will also increase by 2.8 percent to Rp 487 trillion in 2024 and 3.3 percent to Rp 503 trillion in 2025.
In the face of increasing global uncertainty and national economic and financial cycles below potential economic capacity, the BI policy mix will remain oriented toward maintaining stability and supporting sustainable economic growth. The policy mix is implemented in sync with national economic policy and follows the mandates of the BI Law and the Financial Sector Development and Strengthening (P2SK) Law.
