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Analysis: Coalition-building for Prabowo’s incoming government
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Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto attended the inaugural working meeting with the DPR's Commission I at the Senayan Parliament Complex, Jakarta, Monday (11/11/2019). A working meeting between the DPR and the Ministry of Defense (Kemhan) discussed the 2020 Ministry of Defense work plan and its budget support. (JP/Dhoni Setiawan)
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s the electoral dust settles and Prabowo Subianto looks certain to win the presidency, the focus has now shifted to the intricate process of coalition-building. The public is anticipating Prabowo’s next move to consolidate power before he takes over from President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo in October.
It is Jokowi, however, who has made a head start. On Sunday the President had dinner with NasDem Party chairman Surya Paloh at the State Palace, sparking speculation that the party that nominated opposition figurehead Anies Baswedan in the presidential race will soon jump ship and join Prabowo’s government coalition.
Jokowi said the meeting was only a start to coalition-building efforts and that nothing had been finalized. The President also downplayed his role, stating that he simply acted as a mediator. Surya has kept mum about the meeting although NasDem executive Willy Aditya said it was too early to talk about the party’s move to join the new government’s coalition.
Coordinator of presidential special staff Ari Dwipayana said Jokowi and Surya talked about national issues, global challenges and political dynamics related to the Feb. 14 election during the Sunday night encounter. Ari also confirmed it was Surya who requested the meeting, although NasDem secretary-general Hermawi Taslim denied such a claim.
The last time Jokowi held a tete-a-tete meeting with Surya came on Aug. 31, 2023, when the NasDem-led Coalition of Change for Unity electoral alliance was seeking a potential running mate to Anies. Political analysts, therefore, speculate that the Feb. 18 meeting marked a start to a negotiations to bring the party into Prabowo’s Indonesia Onward Coalition, with Jokowi acting as a broker.
The National Awakening Party (PKB), whose chairman Muhaimin Iskandar ran for vice president alongside Anies, has also responded to the Jokowi-Surya meeting. PKB deputy chairman Cucun Ahmad Syamsurijal dismissed reports suggesting that the party would switch sides after seeing that Prabowo looks certain to win the race. Cucun said there had been no talks about the future of the alliance that supported Anies-Muhaimin since everybody was focusing on the vote count.
Analysts have taken into account the PKB’s propensity of leaning toward the ruling coalition in the past, which may recur this time around. The PKB had left the alliance it formed with Prabowo’s Gerindra and the National Mandate Party after Prabowo failed to pick Muhaimin as his running mate.
