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View all search resultsSoutheast Asia needs consistency, not just US deals
Beyond diplomatic formalities, the real test of Trump’s ASEAN Summit attendance is whether US transactionalism will undermine the region's economic unity and democratic institutions.
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Final touch: A worker installs a sign for the 49th ASEAN Summit and Related Summits on Nov. 13, 2026 near the Philippine International Convention Center in Manila, the venue for the regional gathering that runs from Nov. 15 to 17. (AFP/Ted Aljibe)
W
hen United States President Donald Trump arrives in Manila this week for the 49th ASEAN Summit, his presence will carry significance beyond routine diplomatic formalities. At a time when Southeast Asia is increasingly becoming a focal point of strategic competition between Washington and Beijing, the US president's attendance offers an opportunity to reaffirm the US’ regional commitments.
For ASEAN, however, the more pressing question is not simply whether Washington intends to remain engaged, but what kind of engagement it offers—and at what cost to the region's security, economic independence and democratic institutions.
Trump's visit comes at a particularly consequential moment. The recent US midterm elections, which saw Democrats regain control of Congress, have raised fresh questions about the direction of U policy, particularly regarding trade and tariffs. Meanwhile, China continues to deepen its economic and political ties across Southeast Asia—including through closer defense cooperation with Laos and Cambodia—while positioning itself as a leading voice in global artificial intelligence governance.
Simultaneously, ASEAN member states are confronting a range of internal and regional challenges, from renewed border tensions between Cambodia and Thailand and the ongoing crisis in Myanmar to the proliferation of cyberscam networks and persistent disputes in the South China Sea. Any US engagement will largely be judged by its impact across these critical issues.
Security cooperation is expected to feature prominently in Manila. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth's recent participation in the ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting-Plus in Cebu, where he proposed a new US-ASEAN Framework for Defense Cooperation, suggests that Washington is looking to institutionalize its regional security presence through enhanced maritime domain awareness and naval coordination.
There is a clear rationale for deeper cooperation. The South China Sea is vital to international trade, energy security, and the livelihoods of millions across Southeast Asia. Enhanced regional military capabilities could strengthen deterrence against Chinese coercion, a central concern for several ASEAN members, including the Philippines and Vietnam.
However, ASEAN member states differ considerably in how they perceive China and manage their relationships with Beijing, making any unified security alignment with Washington difficult. Furthermore, ASEAN has long maintained a commitment to strategic autonomy and reducing dependence on external powers.
