More than half-way through the second and last term of his presidency, Jokowi has defied all pundits’ predictions about him becoming a dysfunctional president, as we saw happen to his predecessor Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in (2004-2014). Another good comparison would be with United States presidents, and the case of Barrack Obama (2009-2017) is very telling of how he struggled with his legislative agenda in the second term.

None of that is happening to Jokowi and in fact, today he is still very much in charge of the nation, if not more so than when he took his second oath of office in October 2019.

For one, he is still in command of the seven-party coalition government, even though unlike all presidents before him, he does not chair any of them and has had to negotiate every step of the way to ensure their support. He is still very much the country’s commander-in-chief, with both the Indonesian Military (TNI) and the National Police giving their unswerving and loyal support.

As if this was not enough, independent polls show the President is still very popular, an enviable position for any second-term president in a democracy. In spite of the COVID-19 pandemic, including some early policy blunders, and a severe economic recession, his approval ratings have never fallen below 60 percent, according to most surveys.

What this means is that, with so much political capital in his hands, Jokowi has been able to push almost all his policies, including his legislative agenda, with little obstruction.

In 2020, he got the House of Representatives to endorse the controversial omnibus Job Creation Law in spite of widespread opposition from labor and civil society groups. In February, he got the House to endorse the bill on the National Capital City allowing him to forge ahead with his plan to build a new city in East Kalimantan to become the Indonesia’s new capital city.

Many had dismissed the new capital project, which will take more than two decades to complete, as too costly and unfeasible, and predicted that the President would have to abandon it as soon as his political support waned. That of course is not happening.

One would just wish that Jokowi would use some of this political capital to push for other unpopular but necessary policies, such as phasing out the costly fuel subsidy program.

With just a little under two years before the next general elections, there are no indications of Jokowi losing his grip on power, to the frustration of some of his detractors, including some of the parties in the coalition government.

In normal times, these parties would be preparing for the 2024 elections and would be prepared to abandon the President or depart from his policies if they had to.

Having seven parties in the coalition, including the three biggest ones in the country – the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), Golkar and Gerindra – ensures that no one holds sway against him, and instead it gives him the luxury of playing one party against another to sustain their support.  Given his strong popularity, these parties know better than to be seen fighting the President in the open.

One explanation for his staying power is the current discourse about Jokowi ruling beyond 2024, even though this would go against the constitution, which sets a maximum of two consecutive term limits for a president.

The same polling agencies that give him high approval ratings say there is little support for Jokowi to stay in power beyond 2024.

Jokowi has repeatedly denied he would go for a third term, and has described those who are pushing the idea as “giving him a slap on the face” and “setting a trap for him”. But in the latest comment this month, as the discourse shifted from serving a third term to postponing the 2024 elections and therefore extending his rule, the President gave a somewhat unconvincing answer in saying that he “would abide by the constitution”, knowing that the People’s Consultative Assembly (MPR) may open a debate on amending the constitution this year.

In spite of his repeated denials, the discourse about him staying beyond 2024 stubbornly refuses to go away, kept alive by people close to him. Whether they are acting on his behalf or out of their own interests is anybody’s guess.

Last month, Maritime and Investment Coordinating Minister Luhut Pandjaitan said he had “big data” of social media users to show that the majority of people wanted Jokowi to stay. At the same time, three parties in the coalition, including Golkar, came out in the open to claim that this was the aspiration of the people.

This week, a massive gathering of all village heads in the country at the Senayan Sports Hall in Jakarta heard calls for Jokowi to serve a third term. A campaign is under way to mobilize public support to push the MPR to open the constitutional amendment debate.

Critics say the discourse on extending Jokowi’s rule is unnecessarily sapping the nation’s time and energy. Jokowi may rightly beg to differ. Without the prospect of him staying beyond 2024, he would surely have become a lame duck president by now and not be able to govern effectively.

Maybe it has not been such a waste of time after all.

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The writer is senior editor at The Jakarta Post.