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Biden’s new trade-pact offer is almost a laughingstock

Despite the US’ repeated denials, its invitation of the ASEAN members was clearly another attempt to persuade them to join the alliance against China.

Kornelius Purba (The Jakarta Post)
Jakarta
Mon, May 30, 2022

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Biden’s new trade-pact offer is almost a laughingstock

U

nited States President Joe Biden invited seven of the 10-member ASEAN, including Indonesia, to join the launch of his new trade offensive, aimed at distancing them from China, their most important trading partner. Instead of obtaining any concrete economic advantages, the ASEAN members were there only to hear Biden preach about the latent danger of corruption and the refusal of big corporations to fulfil their tax obligations. Biden lured them to enter his trap, but he was reluctant to use a tempting bait because the “price” would be expensive.

Biden’s initiative, the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), is also a “slap in the face” for Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida because Tokyo was the main champion of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), an alternative for the Trans-Pacific Partnership which the Trump administration had dumped.

The ASEAN members attended the virtual meeting as a follow-up of the US-ASEAN summit in Washington DC on May 12-13, which was attended by President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo. At that time Biden could only offer angin surga (fake promises) in the form of economic pledges worth US$250 million, miniscule compared to China’s pledge of up to $1.5 billion for three years.

Indonesia sent Trade Minister Muhammad Lutfi for the virtual meeting in Tokyo, perhaps out of curiosity about the IPEF initiative. In fact, the US remains one of the world’s biggest and most lucrative markets, even when compared to China, but Indonesia was aware from the very beginning that IPEF would not constitute a free-trade deal. It seems like a loose trade pact, and probably will not even be legally binding.

Despite the US’ repeated denials, its invitation of the ASEAN members was clearly another attempt to persuade them to join the alliance against China.

The IPEF’s virtual inauguration took place when Biden was in Tokyo to attend the second summit of the loose Quad security pact comprising the US, Japan, India and Australia. The four countries work together to gang up on China. They do not have the guts to confront China one-on-one as their economy is heavily dependent on China. Australia’s previous government under the Conservatives' Scott Morrison tried to fight China’s economic punishing tool, but it remains uncertain if his successor, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese from the Labor Party, will maintain the confrontational approach.

The White House proudly described the launch of IPEF as trade diplomacy that will “enable the US and our allies to decide on rules of the road that ensure US workers, small businesses and ranchers can compete in the Indo-Pacific”. The message aims to convince the US public, who does not want to give economic concessions to US allies.

But why should Indonesia help Biden address domestic problems?

In his speech, Biden talked about the danger of corruption (in ASEAN, Singapore is very likely the only corruption-free nation) and taxation, saying that corruption “saps between 2 to 5 percent of global GDP. It exacerbates inequality. It hollows out the country’s ability to deliver for its citizens”.

Come on, Biden. Indonesia and ASEAN need market access and not indoctrination.

“And tax and trade belong in the same framework because if companies aren’t paying their fair share, it’s harder for governments to pay for Trade Adjustment Assistance or to fund education or health services, or a range of public investments -- that makes it so hard for families; it feels like they can’t raise their children and give them a better life,” Biden said, as if he was delivering an election campaign speech.

IPEF comprises 13 country members: Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam along with New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and the US as the leader.

Last week the White House even announced that Fiji would also join the new club, which accounts for 40 percent of the world GDP.

The framework offers flexibility and speed of negotiations. Participants are free to cherry-pick from four pillars: resilient trade (standards for the digital economy, the ethical use of AI, labor and environmental standards); supply-chain resilience (early warning systems, diversification efforts); climate and infrastructure; and tax policy and anti-corruption measures.

After the meeting, the participants announced their readiness to “launch collective consultations towards future negotiations.” Biden’s IPEF was probably born dead.

Now let us talk about Japan’s problem. A few days before Biden’s arrival in Tokyo, Jiji Press reported that Kishida would inform regarding Japan’s readiness to join IPEF, clearly because the US ally does not want to lose any momentum in containing China. However, Kishida also told Biden that Japan still wanted the US to return to the CPTPP.

The CPTPP is a free-trade agreement (FTA) between 11 countries around the Pacific Rim: Canada, Mexico, Peru, Chile, New Zealand, Australia, Brunei, Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam and Japan. Indonesia refused to join the club from the very beginning because anti-China sentiment was very strong among the leading members.

When Donald Trump abandoned TPP in 2017, Japan and Australia worked together closely to set up the CPTPP, with the expectation that Biden would overturn Trump’s decision. They were wrong. Any free-trade deals are unpopular with the US people. TPP was designed to fight against China. But what happened? China teased Japan with its decision to apply for TPP membership.

"There's no change in our position that the US' return to the TPP is desirable," Matsuno added. "We'll continue to ask for the [US] return,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno told a news conference on Wednesday.

Kishida accepted the US decision as an ally with a key strategic security interest.  But how about Indonesia?

Indonesia and countries in this region need the US presence, especially to counterbalance China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea, and for Indonesia in the Natuna waters. However, the lucrative US market is their most important interest.

Biden persuaded Indonesia and other nations to join his multilateral campaign to isolate China. But what he offers is too poisonous to accept.

Sorry to say, the IPEF has become a laughingstock in the region.

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The writer is senior editor at The Jakarta Post.

 

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