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Indonesia votes for new president under shadow of influential incumbent
Nearly 259,000 candidates are contesting 20,600 posts across the country in the world's biggest single-day election, but all eyes are on the presidency and the fate of Jokowi's ambitious agenda after a decade in charge of one of Asia's biggest and fastest-growing major economies.
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President Joko “Jokowi“ Widodo (right) and his wife Iriana cast their ballot during the presidential and legislative elections at a polling station at the State Administration Agency in Jakarta on February 14, 2024. (AFP/Mas Agung Wilis)
Indonesia holds an election of mammoth proportions on Wednesday headlined by the race to succeed the wildly popular President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo, a leader whose outsized influence could determine who takes the helm of the world's third-largest democracy.
Nearly 259,000 candidates are contesting 20,600 posts across the country in the world's biggest single-day election, but all eyes are on the presidency and the fate of Jokowi's ambitious agenda after a decade in charge of one of Asia's biggest and fastest-growing major economies.
The race pits two charismatic former governors, Ganjar Pranowo and Anies Baswedan, against controversial frontrunner Prabowo Subianto, a former special forces commander feared in the 1990s as a top lieutenant of Indonesia's late strongman ruler Suharto.
Defence Minister Prabowo is contesting his third election after twice losing to Jokowi who is tacitly backing and betting on his former rival as a continuity candidate to preserve his legacy, including a role for his son as Prabowo's running mate.
Jokowi, who cannot run again, has not explicitly backed a candidate but his implied endorsement is rubbing off on Prabowo, who during the campaign has led all ofIndonesia's most watched opinion polls, with two surveys last week projecting he will win the majority of votes and avoid a second round.
Those surveys show Prabowo with 51.8 percent and 51.9 percent support, with Anies and Ganjar a whopping 27 and 31 points adrift respectively. To win outright, a candidate needs over 50 percent of votes and to secure 20 percent of the ballot in half of the country's provinces.
"Jokowi as the decisive factor has been proven by the rising popularity of Prabowo," said Arya Fernandes of Indonesia's Center for Strategic and International Studies.
"But whether or not Prabowo can win in one round, there are some other factors outside of Jokowi," he said, noting turnout would be crucial for Prabowo.
"Jokowi's effect has reached the maximum level."
The outcome will be closely watched by investors to see who will take stewardship of a resource-rich, Group of 20 economy of over $1.3 trillion, which under Jokowi has positioned itself as a future destination for multinational firms in the global electric vehicle supply chain.
Undecided voters will be critical to former Jakarta governor Anies and the populist ex-Central Java governor Ganjar, to try to force a runoff in June between the top two finishers, a scenario that could shift the dynamic of the presidential race.
Anies has campaigned on promises of change and preventing a backsliding in the democratic reforms achieved in the 25 years since the end of Suharto's authoritarian, kleptocratic rule.
Ganjar hails from Jokowi's ruling party and has campaigned largely on continuing the president's policies, but crucially is lacking his endorsement, leaving him with a mountain to climb against Prabowo, who is pursuing a similar agenda.
The 72-year-old Prabowo has cultivated a huge youth following on social media, owing to a rebrand that has transformed his image from a fiery-tempered nationalist and military hard man to a cuddly grandfather figure with awkward dance moves.
Prabowo's more gentle characterisation, played out largely on short video app TikTok, has endeared him to voters under 40, who make up more than half of the 204.8 million electorate.
But Jokowi's intimated support for Prabowo, plus allegations he interfered in a court ruling to allow his son to contest the vice presidency, have prompted an unprecedented storm of criticism that he has overreached, departing from previous presidents who have been neutral over their succession.
His loyalists have rejected that and it is unclear if the allegations will impact Prabowo.
Jokowi's gambit could still pay off, with some analysts seeing it as a calibrated manoeuvre to retain influence long after he leaves office.
Wasisto Raharjo Jati, a politics analyst at the National Agency for Research and Innovation, said the election would be much about what the candidates are promising.
"How big an impact Jokowi's interference will have still remains to be seen," he said.
"The candidates' programmes will be the decisive factor... Populist pledges that are easy to remember will be very influential."
Election commissioner Idham Kholik told AFP all voters should be allowed to cast their ballots if large queues remained when polls closed.
Prabowo needs to claim more than 50 percent of the overall vote and at least a fifth of ballots cast in over half the country's 38 provinces to secure the presidency.
If he falls short, a second-round vote will be held in June.
Anies, seen as the favourite to challenge Subianto in that event, told supporters to help ensure a fair vote in the graft-riddled country where voters dip their finger in halal ink to prevent double voting.
"Come back to the voting station, monitor the vote count," he told reporters.
Ganjar, last in polls after being the initial front-runner, said: "Everyone hopes for a clean election".
