B

ritish voters will soon go to the polls to decide whether or not their country should remain a part of the EU.

Those campaigning to stay in or leave EU are competing ferociously against one another. Both sides have taken slight leads over the other at different points of the campaign, according to a number of surveys, and the uncertainty is enough to jitter investors in Asian markets as they fear a possible crash in the world’s biggest economic entity.

The EU is the biggest investor in ASEAN and a top trading partner. Nonetheless, a British split will have little impact on the regional community, experts have said.

If Britons opt to leave the EU (Brexit), there will be significant changes within the supranational EU body, but the changes will not be immense enough to cast shadows over other regional entities like ASEAN, Gadjah Mada University international relations expert Muhadi Sugiono said.

The most concerning thing about Brexit is that it might propel other countries to exit from the EU, even though the probability of such a contingency is quite low, he added.

The UK has never been fully involved in the EU. The British opposed replacing the poundsterling for the euro and opted out of the passport-free Schengen Agreement to try and better maintain its borders. Nonetheless, the EU still works despite leaving its second-biggest economy out a number of important requirements, Muhadi says.

”In fact, considering that the EU and ASEAN rely more on regional frameworks for their cooperation, any impact to the partnership following Brexit will be minimal,” he explains.

On the other side, the UK would suffer more from a separation than the EU itself as it could no longer ride on its partnerships with other countries. The country might have to renegotiate several arrangements with ASEAN, Muhadi says.

The EU is ASEAN’s biggest investor — with investment hitting around 14.8 billion euros per year on average. The EU and ASEAN trade with each other to the tune of €200 billion a year.

The EU’s main exports to ASEAN are chemical products and machinery and transport equipment. ASEAN’s main exports to the EU are agricultural products and textiles and clothing.

The UK is a strategic trading partner for ASEAN member states, and its trade with Indonesia alone reached US$2.3 billion last year.

Yose Rizal Damuri, head of economic research at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said there could be both positive and negative impacts from Brexit.

On the negative side, Yose said some economists predicted that the UK would experience a decline in its economic development.

The UK is one of the main export destinations in Europe for most ASEAN countries and it is also the top destination for Indonesia when it comes to export destinations in Europe, he said.

“With a negative impact on the UK’s economy, it will certainly cause an impact on ASEAN countries exporting to the UK,” Yose said. “But there are others [economists] who also say that it [the UK’s economy] would expand instead. It’s a mixed review.”

Meanwhile, on the positive side, Yose said that Brexit would open up the chance for the UK to freely open new trade agreements with other countries such as Northern American countries.

“This also means that Southeast Asian economies will have a new opportunity to deepen their relationship with the UK, who will have the freedom to open new trade agreements with other countries without having to wait for the EU’s approval,” he argued.