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Jakarta Post

Analysis: Telecommunications: The state of play – 1Q18 wrap-up

  • Andri Ngaserin

    Bahana

Jakarta   /   Thu, May 17 2018   /  02:46 am

Key Summary: The first quarter of 2018 ( 1Q18 ) saw a major headwind in the telecommunications industry, with the revenue of the big-three mobile operators declining for the first time at a -5 percent year on year (yoy) run rate. Note that this was likely due to a one-off adjustment related to the recognition of revenue in 2017 from the “push” method of distribution. We think the effect will continue until the second quarter and we await the final SIM registration numbers. We believe that mobile revenue will continue to grow, driven by data revenue, albeit at a slower pace. The state of play:Big-3 mobile revenue declined 5 percent yoy in 1Q18. We saw large downward adjustment in the average revenue per user (ARPU) of 28 percent yoy while the 1Q18 subscriber number grew on a yoy basis but fell 5 percent quarter on quarter (qoq) owing to a large drop in Indosat’s subscriber base. We ...