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ncumbent Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo has continued to enjoy a comfortable lead over challenger Sudirman Said, despite being implicated in the high-profile e-ID graft case.

Several surveys, most recently from Jakarta-based pollster Indikator Politik Indonesia and the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), put Ganjar’s electability rating at around 60 to 70 percent, while Sudirman’s remains at around 15 to 20 percent.

Ganjar, an Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) member, and his running mate Taj Yasin, are backed by the PDI-P, Golkar, the United Development Party (PPP), Nasdem and the Democratic Party.

Former energy and mineral resources minister Sudirman and running mate Ida Fauziyah are backed by the Gerindra Party, the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), the National Mandate Party (PAN) and the National Awakening Party (PKB).

“Barring a political tsunami, it seems that [Ganjar] will most likely win,” CSIS researcher Arya Fernandes said recently.

Arya cited Ganjar’s high approval ratings, which stood at 65.3 percent in the CSIS poll, and the longstanding popularity of the PDI-P in Central Java as reasons for his substantial lead.

“PDI-P voters are very loyal and difficult to sway, even with the e-ID issue,” he said.

Indikator’s poll showed similar findings, with 39.4 percent of the 820 Central Java residents polled saying that they would vote for the PDI-P in the legislative elections.

Indikator researcher Kuskridho Ambadi said the combination of voter loyalty toward the PDI-P, Ganjar’s personal popularity, and high voter satisfaction made him difficult to beat, despite allegations of involvement in the e-ID graft case, which reportedly caused Rp 2.3 trillion (US$165.29 million) in state losses.

Ganjar, a former member of the House of Representatives’s Commission II overseeing home affairs, has been named a few times in court proceedings as one of the lawmakers who received bribes in connection with the e-ID procurement project.

Most recently, former House speaker and graft convict Setya Novanto said during his trial that several people, including businessman Andi Agustinus, had told him that Ganjar received $1.2 million.

Kuskridho said that 55.4 percent of respondents acknowledged they had heard of the allegations but only 19.8 percent of those believed the allegations were true.

“So the effect [of the allegations] is much less than what people may have previously thought,” he said.

PKB secretary-general Abdul Kadir Karding cast doubts on the survey’s results, implying that Indikator had a hidden agenda.

“Who financed [this poll]? Who is the sponsor?” he said during the release of the survey results on Monday.

He added that he did not think that Ganjar had done anything significant for Central Java during his five years in office, but acknowledged that Ganjar’s personal charisma might be a contributing factor in his apparent popularity.

“Ganjar is very good at building his public persona. I think that the public tends to just go with the flow and picks whoever is best at creating a public image,” he said.

He added that he was still optimistic that the Sudirman-Ida pair could win come election day.

Nasdem politician Saur Hutabarat, on the other hand, said that Ganjar’s already considerable lead could be extended even further by improving the name recognition and popularity of running mate Taj Yasin.

Only 27.1 percent of the respondents polled said that they had heard of Taj Yasin compared to the 87.7 percent who knew of Ganjar.

“I think that with Taj Yasin’s social standing as a son of a kyai [Islamic teacher], he should be able to provide a larger electoral effect,” Saur said. “So all [Ganjar] needs to worry about in these last few weeks is how to best leverage his running mate to bring in even more votes.”