T

here was little surprise in West Java, where surveys and quick counts consistently hinted at a victory for non-active Bandung mayor Ridwan Kamil and running mate Uu Ruzhanul Ulum in the gubernatorial election. However, the pair was not expected to win by such a small margin.

All pollsters conducting quick counts on Wednesday said Ridwan and Uu were expected to win the province’s leadership post with around 33 percent of the vote, while rivals Sudrajat and Ahmad Syaikhu, who were initially not considered tough contenders, garnered 29 percent of the vote.

The race was contested by four candidate pairs, including West Java Deputy Governor Deddy Mizwar and running mate Purwakarta regent Dedi Mulyadi, and former military general TB Hasanuddin and former West Java Police chief Anton Charliyan.

Ridwan and Uu, the regent of Tasikmalaya, were endorsed by two Islam-based parties — the National Awakening Party (PKB) and the United Development Party (PPP) — as well as the NasDem Party and the Hanura Party, all of which are members of the ruling coalition.

Retired Army general Sudrajat and former Bekasi deputy mayor Syaikhu received the backing of the Gerindra Party, the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), and the National Mandate Party (PAN). The religiously conservative province is a stronghold of Gerindra and the PKS.

Previous surveys predicted that the West Java election would see tough competition between Ridwan-Uu and Deddy-Dedi, while Sudrajat-Syaikhu consistently ranked third in various surveys with less than 20 percent of the vote. The underdogs surprised many by climbing to second position, narrowing their margin with the
leading pair.

Quick counts suggest that Deddy and Dedi secured fewer votes than Sudrajat and Syaikhu, or around 26 percent. Meanwhile, Hasanuddin and Anton, who are backed only by the Indonesia Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), only garnered 12 percent of the vote.

The narrowing gap between Ridwan-Uu and Sudrajat-Syaikhu has surprised political analysts. “We [keep asking] where the votes came from. But actually, there were votes we couldn’t predict. Also, candidates might have found a way to mobilize voters after Idul Fitri, something that we didn’t survey,” Indikator Politik analyst Kuskridho Ambardi said.

Data from several pollsters conducting quick counts showed that Ridwan secured a big victory in his hometown Bandung and the surrounding area, including in Cimahi, Tasikmalaya and Garut. Meanwhile, Sudrajat-Syaikhu led in satellite cities, such as Bogor, Bekasi and Depok, also the strongholds of the PKS and many other conservative groups.

Padjadjaran University political scientist Idil Akbar said the anti-President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo movement on social media called #2019GantiPresident (change the president), initiated by a PKS politician, might have contributed to the rising popularity of Sudrajat and Syaikhu, which eventually affected swing voters.

“West Java has somehow become the home base of supporters of the movement,” Idil said, adding that 30 percent out of the total of 32 million voters in the province were identified as swing voters.

Gerindra said it had done its best for Sudrajat and Syaikhu, even though the pair eventually lost to Ridwan and Uu.

“There is a silent majority in West Java that the pollsters couldn’t reach. Our political machine worked extra hard,” Gerindra executive Sodik Mudjahid told The Jakarta Post.

Gerindra also called on all parties to wait for the results of the official count by the General Elections Commission (KPU) and not claim victory.

However, Ridwan has shown confidence. “All of the quick-count results by survey institutions consistently indicate that we have won,” he said in Bandung.