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Poll race narrows, undecided voters likely to split equally
The survey, which polled 1,600 people between March 18 and April 1 with a 2.45 percent margin of error, found that 7.9 percent of them were still undecided.
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Presidential candidates Joko Widodo-Ma'ruf Amin, General Elections Commission (KPU) chairman Arief Budiman (center) and presidential candidates Prabowo Subianto-Sandiaga Uno appear on stage during the first candidate debate on Jan. 18. (JP/Dhoni Setiawan)
T
he electoral gap between Prabowo Subianto and Joko “Jokowi” Widodo has narrowed amid a large number of undecided voters, a recent poll shows.
According to a survey by Jakarta-based Voxpol Center Research and Consulting published on Tuesday, Jokowi and Ma’ruf Amin have an electability rating of 48.8 percent, while Prabowo and Sandiaga Uno 43.3 percent, giving the incumbent president a 5.5 percent lead.
The survey, which polled 1,600 people between March 18 and April 1 with a 2.45 percent margin of error, found that 7.9 percent of them were still undecided.
Voxpol executive director Pangi Syarwi Chaniago said undecided voters would be the "electoral God" in the 2019 presidential election because they could change the political scene in the future.
However, undecided voters’ preference was likely to be split equally between Jokowi and Prabowo.
“Both candidate pairs and their teams must work hard to seize the opportunity," Pangi said on Tuesday.
Pangi said the Bradley effect could occur in the election. The theory is named after former Los Angeles mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California governor's race despite being ahead in voter polls going into the election.
“He lost because many white people did not want to be considered racist during the survey. Respondents were dishonest during the survey,” he said.
According to the survey, 27.9 of the undecided voters said they would make a decision on who they would vote for once in the voting booth . While the rest said they would either make a decision after the last debate , on election day or wait for money or gifts from the candidates ahead of the election.
“Both candidates must be able to manage several issues and approach clerics or community leaders,” he said.
The survey also found that 54.7 percent of Indonesians were satisfied with Jokowi's government, mainly its infrastructure projects. However, Pangi said, the figure did not mean Jokowi was safe.
“There is a theory that is recognized by pollsters that if the satisfaction level is below 70 percent and electability is below 60 percent, it is difficult for the incumbent to be reelected. There must be a breakthrough in boosting votes,” Pangi said.
